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Here comes the earthquake

Bombshell new polling points to a major shake-up of British politics

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Matt Goodwin
Apr 22, 2025
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Ten days from now, the British people will head to the ballot box to have their first say since Keir Starmer and the Labour Party came to power last July.

In what will be the first big test of public opinion since the 2024 general election, voters will cast their judgement in local and mayoral elections, as well as a crunch parliamentary by-election in the northern, Labour-held seat of Runcorn and Helsby.


Exclusive: Matt's note from the first big by-election of this parliament

Exclusive: Matt's note from the first big by-election of this parliament

Matt Goodwin
·
Apr 18
Read full story

We already know that the mood music in the country has changed considerably since an already unpopular Keir Starmer and his Labour government came to power.

Amid the worst cost-of-living crisis since the Second World War, soaring levels of legal and illegal immigration, deteriorating public services, a glaring lack of social integration, and a succession of scandals that have rocked the Labour government, from the rape gangs to Freebiegate, voters have been changing their political loyalties.

Just look at where the parties are today compared to last July.

On average, in the very latest polls, Labour is down more than 10-points on what it won last year, polling just 24%. Kemi Badenoch and the Tories are down more than 2-points, languishing on just 22%, showing no sign at all of any recovery. And the Liberal Democrats are up 1-point, averaging just 13.6% of the vote.

The real story, as we’ve been predicting and analysing for some time, is not what’s happened to the established parties but, instead, what’s happened to Reform.

Compared to their result last year, Nigel Farage and his party are now up 11-points to reach 25% of the national vote. And that’s not all.

According to brand new and very sophisticated polling, released over the weekend, British politics is about to witness a major earthquake, with Reform now bearing down on the established parties in important but different ways.

So, exclusively for our paid subscribers, here’s my take on the detail in that bombshell polling and what you really need to know ahead of not only those crucial elections next week but what looks set to be a much wider redrawing of the political map.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We are heading into one of the most volatile, one of the most unpredictable, and one of the most consequential periods in British political history, the beginnings of which we can see reflected in the numbers I’m about to break down for you. So let me walk you through what you need to know …


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