EXCLUSIVE: Who Votes Reform & Why?

An exclusive survey of 3,400 Reform party voters

Matt Goodwin’s Substack goes to more than 28,900 subscribers in 151 countries each week. Become a paid supporter to access everything —the full archive, unique posts, leave comments, join the debate, get discounts, advance notice about events, and the knowledge you’re supporting independent, contrarian writers who are making a difference.

A new revolution is sweeping through British politics. The Reform party —the successor to Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party (UKIP) and Brexit Party— is now on 16% in the polls. It’s polling ahead of the Conservatives among the working-class, northerners, Brexit voters, and men. And it’s attracting close to one-in-three of the people who voted Conservative at the last election, in 2019.

Even without Nigel Farage at the helm, this new revolt on the right, led by Richard Tice, not only looks set to ensure Rishi Sunak and the Tories suffer a humiliating defeat at the looming general election but increasingly looks like it might usher in a much wider realignment of the right in British politics.

But who is voting for Reform, and why?

What are their overriding concerns? What issues do they care most strongly about? Who did they vote for in 2019? Where do they stand not only on cultural issues, like immigration, but economic issues, too, like globalisation, tax, and big business? And how, if at all, might Rishi Sunak and the Tories hope to win these voters back?

Well, I’ll tell you.

In recent weeks, with the Legatum Institute, I’ve conducted the first, the largest, and the most comprehensive survey of Reform voters to date.

I’ve surveyed more than 3,400 people who are currently planning to vote for the Reform party at the 2024 general election.

Having already identified the 50 most Reform-friendly seats in the country, the seats where the party looks set to inflict the most damage on the big parties at the rapidly approaching election, in this exclusive piece —which I know, for a fact, has made its way to the very top of the two big parties and the Reform party—I show you who is planning to vote for the Reform party, what they believe, and why they are on the cusp of triggering another serious revolt in British politics.

So, if you want to read what people in Number 10, the Labour Party HQ, Nigel Farage’s inner-circle and Richard Tice are all reading then keep going …