What New Hampshire is Really All About

The ideological civil war fuelling Donald Trump

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The next step in Donald Trump’s path to returning to the White House takes place tomorrow, in New Hampshire —a state Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020, and Hillary Clinton in 2016 but which looks set to hand him another primary victory.

After our last piece on the primary in Iowa, which as we predicted delivered Trump a record victory and led to Ron DeSantis quitting the race, in this piece I wanted to reflect more broadly on what I think New Hampshire is really all about.

We summarise all the latest polling and numbers, of course. But, perhaps more importantly, I wanted to offer a few thoughts on what I think this race is telling us about an ideological civil war within conservatism, which is not only visible in America but is sweeping through the British and European right, too.

This is part of our 2024 election coverage. We’ll be doing this for all three of the big elections that will dominate 2024 and reshape global politics —the U.S. presidential election, the UK general election, and a crunch set of elections in Europe.