The most important study of Reform’s support yet — by Sir John Curtice

New data on Britain’s revolt on the right

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One reason why this newsletter continues to grow is because we try to give our readers something that is rare: evidence-based analysis of issues the establishment would rather we ignore.

Each week, we introduce you to new studies or evidence you might have missed, and which often runs against the lazy Groupthink among the ruling class.

Such as a very important new study of why millions of people are joining Reform UK’s growing revolt against the establishment.

According to the latest polls, Reform is now on 30 per cent of the national vote, is some 10-points clear of Labour and the Tories, and is on its way into government.

Later this week, Reform could yet win a parliamentary by-election in the northern, Labour-held seat of Makerfield.

Even if it falls short, it will not be due to a lack of support. Constituency polls from Makerfield consistently put Reform in second place, on roughly 40 per cent of the vote, only a few points behind Labour.

It is Rupert Lowe’s rival Restore party, not a lack of public support for Reform, that is threatening Reform’s chances in the seat.

With Restore taking between 5 and 8 per cent in polls from Makerfield, the renegade party cannot win the seat but it can ensure that Labour does and Reform loses.

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Either way, irrespective of what happens in Makerfield it is crystal clear that Reform is not going anywhere. Which brings me back to that important new study.

Because despite Reform’s rise, Westminster continues to comfort itself with the belief that this revolt is little more than a protest against the system — an irrational outburst of anger among an underclass of voters who have no coherent worldview.

Routinely, Reform voters are dismissed as “angry”, “frustrated”, “disillusioned with politics”, and “struggling” with the cost-of-living crisis.

The only problem with this narrative, as a brand new report by Sir John Curtice and the National Centre for Social Research makes clear, is that it’s simply not true. In fact, the evidence points in a completely different direction.

Today, I explain why this is one of the most important studies yet on Reform, how it builds on our previous surveys of Reform voters (see here and here), and what it tells us about the next general election.

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