The coming earthquake

CRUCIAL new data on what's about to erupt in British politics

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“A revolution”, said Alexis de Tocqueville, “is not a sudden eruption, but the accumulation of silent changes that suddenly become visible”.

And this is exactly what is now unfolding across the UK, where three major revolts are now giving expression to the steady accumulation of deeper changes.

First, there are organised protests against the ‘migrant hotels’ and Britain’s broken borders, with another thirty protests happening over the next week and coming after the victory in Epping, which is clearly galvanising further action.

Second, as I wrote earlier this week, there is the emerging “raising the colours” social movement, with people across the country hoisting Union and St George’s flags to showcase their opposition to the government and pride in the country.

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And, third, there is the continuing rise of Reform UK at the ballot box, which as some brand new polling, released this week, shows, is clearly tapping into the same groundswell of public disillusionment and despair over the dire state of Britain.

In fact, Reform, according to pollsters Find Out Now, is currently supported by 33 per cent of voters, sitting comfortably in first place and some 15-points ahead of Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, on 18 per cent, and Kemi Badenoch’s Tories, on 17%

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And no, this is not just a freak poll or extreme outlier.

Why? Because also this week we saw a more sophisticated ‘MRP’ survey by pollsters ElectionMaps, which also points, clearly, to a looming political earthquake.

And, crucially, these were the only pollsters, apart from YouGov, to successfully predict the result in nine in ten seats at the last general election, in 2024.

It puts Reform on a staggering 339 seats, up 334 on the last election, Labour on just 112 seats, down 299, the Lib Dems treading water on 77 seats, and the Tories almost wiped out, on just 35 seats, losing another 86 MPs.

What would the map of British politics look like were these numbers replicated at the next general election in 2028 or 2029?

It would look something like this:

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Reform, in short, would sweep down the eastern half of England, dominating places like Essex and Kent, while capturing Labour’s Red Wall, emerging as a major force in Wales, and becoming dominant in the most northern parts of England.

It would be a political massacre, essentially.

On election night, we would watch political heavyweights such as Labour’s Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Jon Healey, Angela Rayner, Jon Trickett, Sarah Champion, Kim Leadbeater, Dan Jarvis, and Liam Byrne, alongside senior Tories like James Cleverly, all lose their seats to Reform’s insurgency.

“But this is just one opinion poll”, critics will say. “There’s still a long way to go!”

And this is certainly true.

We are still a long way off from a general election.

But there are also two things I would say in response to this, both of which throw light on what is really happening below the surface of British politics.

The first is what is actually happening on the ground, not just in the polls but at local by-elections since the last general election; and the second are the longer-term, more deep-rooted shifts that have been unfolding in British politics and which, I think, much of the mainstream media and other commentators are missing.

Let’s examine both in turn, because doing so will put you well ahead of the curve …

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