Are we heading for a summer election?

On the latest rumours swirling around Westminster

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Rumours are swirling around Westminster that contrary to the expectation of an autumn or winter general election Rishi Sunak is about to bring it forward to the summer, perhaps as early as June. What’s the political logic behind such a call?

It goes something like this.

There’s a view in and around Number 10 that the possibility of further tax cuts in the autumn, a sweetener before a winter election, may not move the dial among voters. If the government’s recent budget cut to National Insurance has not had any visible impact on the Conservative Party’s dire position in the polls, so the thinking goes, then why would a second tax cut later this year make any difference?

They have a point.

In the polls, today, the Tories are averaging just 24%, which is exactly the same as what they were polling the week before Jeremy Hunt’s budget back in early March.

Nor, by the way, is there any evidence that the Tories are winning back their disgruntled and disillusioned 2019 voters. Before the budget, only 48% of them were still loyal to the party. Today? Just 49% are. There’s basically been no movement at all.

There’s also a growing belief that stopping the small boats –one of Sunak’s five pledges—is simply not going to happen anytime soon. If anything, things could easily get worse.

Already, this year, 5,000 illegal migrants have entered Britain illegally on the small boats, which is, astonishingly, nearly 25% higher than at the same time last year.

Throw in a long hot summer with another wave of record migrant crossings in July and August, alongside the possibility that the Rwanda Plan, expected to pass this week, may not have an immediate effect on deterring the small boats, and you begin to see another reason why, for Sunak, a summer election may well be preferable to one later in the year.

And then comes the cost-of-living crisis.

For Team Sunak, going to the country late, during the autumn or winter, was always based on the assumption an election would follow a couple of interest rate cuts.

These cuts, in turn, would underline what looks set to be Sunak’s core pitch to voters. “Things are still difficult”, he’ll say. “But look, we’re over the worst, things are finally improving, so don’t let the Labour Party ruin it”.

The problem, however, is inflation is falling less than expected while many analysts around the world now assume there’ll be fewer cuts than previously thought.

Furthermore, given millions of Brits are already locked into higher rate fixed-term mortgage deals while simultaneously grappling with higher council tax bills will they really notice these interest rate cuts? I seriously doubt it.

And then come more recent political winds, which might also be convincing Team Sunak to go sooner rather than later. Firstly, there’s a view that at the rapidly approaching local elections, next month, the Tories might unexpectedly hold onto earlier gains in the West Midlands and Tees Valley, possibly prompting Sunak to take a gamble.

And, secondly, there’s a belief that a scandal involving Labour’s MP and deputy leader, Angela Rayner, who’s accused of avoiding capital gains tax on the sale of her former council house, is starting to cut through with voters and might make a useful backdrop for a general election campaign.

But I’m unconvinced.

Not by these arguments, which on the surface I’m sure make political sense amid election war-gaming in Number 10 Downing Street. No, I’m unconvinced by a deeper point –that the timing of the general election will make any difference at all.

Whether it’s held in June, July, October or November, the blunt reality is that the Tories are simply going to be smashed to pieces. And it’s not just about the polls, where their support no matter what happens in Westminster continues to slide into the abyss.

It’s about what people out there are thinking and feeling about the dire state of Britain. Look, for example, at the very latest data on how Brits think the Conservative Party is currently managing the biggest issues facing the country.

The top three issues that will decide the 2024 election are, in descending rank order, the economy, the NHS, and immigration. And now look at how people think the government is doing on all three of these crunch issues.

The economy? Just 23% think the government’s doing “well”, while 70% think it’s doing “badly”. The NHS? Only 11% say well while 84% say badly. Immigration? Just 8% say well while, again, 84% say badly. These numbers are truly dismal.

Perceptions of competence, as political scientists will tell you, really do matter. If a governing party is seen as competent on a few key issues then it stands a chance; but if it’s seen as incompetent across the board then it’s lights out.

And as far as most Brits are concerned, the party that’s ruling over them, the party that’s been ruling over them for fourteen years, is incompetent on not just one but every single one of the most important issues facing Britain today.

The average British voter, based on what we can see in the polls, basically thinks the economy is being badly managed, the government is failing to drive growth, slash debt, and curb inflation, while the NHS, including waiting lists and local GP services, is a total nightmare, worse than it was in 2019 and likely to get even worse in the years ahead.

Social care, furthermore, is similarly in a terrible state while the government is also failing to stop the boats and lower legal immigration —both of which symbolise how, contrary to what the Tories have repeatedly promised since 2016, the British people have still not ‘taken back control’ of their own country.

This is why, today, just 15% of people approve of the government’s record, which, even more worryingly for Sunak, rises to only 25% among his own Conservative voters, many of whom share this widespread belief that the government is failing to manage the most pressing issues and hence are defecting to Reform, or simply refusing to vote at all.

While some Tories continue to cling to the mantra that much of this can be overcome via tax cuts this is pure fantasy. Why? Because the British people are nowhere near as enthusiastic about cutting taxes as the Tories like to think they are.

Recent polling shows only a minority of voters think Britain can afford tax cuts right now while a larger number of voters would rather see the government increase spending on public services —which only 14% of Brits think are in “a good state”— than cut taxes. And this, to me, is the key point.

In Broken Britain, where public services are a shambles and nothing seems to work anymore (I am literally writing this column on a train which left London, broke down, and was then returned to London) the Tories routinely overestimate the public appetite for slashing taxes while underestimating the critical importance voters attach to these public services —like having a functioning National Health Service, an affordable and reliable social care system for Mum and Dad, a responsive local GP practice, and a country that can actually control its own borders. Bobby Kennedy once said there’s more to life than GDP; well, there’s more to life than just slashing taxes, too.

And if the Tories think the Angela Rayner scandal is a game-changer then they’re more deluded than I thought. Most voters don’t tune into individual scandals unless they appear to symbolise a deeper problem with the system, like the 2009 expenses scandal (though even there the effects of that scandal on the 2010 election were overstated). Moreover, if the Tories think the Rayner scandal will shift the dial after a very long line of Tory scandals —Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings, Matt Hancock, Bob Stewart, Owen Paterson, Andrew Bridgen, Rob Roberts, Crispin Blunt, William Wragg, Julian Knight, Chris Pincher, David Warburton, Mark Menzies, anyone?—then … well.

The point I’m making is that while rumours of a summer election are generating considerable excitement I really don’t think the timing of the election, or what people promise ahead of that election, will make much of a difference at all.

Few if any of ‘the fundamentals’ will now change, irrespective of whether we go to the polls in June, July, October or November. The economy will remain sluggish. The NHS will remain in turmoil. The boats will keep coming. Immigration will remain high. The British people will remain fed-up and frustrated. All this is now baked in.

And when it comes to the Tory party many voters will remain fixed to their current view. They think it’s doing a terrible job of running the country. They think it’s incompetent on not just one but a whole range of issues. They think it’s too obsessed with slashing taxes at the expense of improving the public services they really do care about. And they think the party no longer really knows what it is or where it wants to take the country.

And you know what? It’s hard to disagree with them. So perhaps Rishi Sunak should just go ahead and press that ‘summer election’ button now because while it won’t make much of a difference to the outcome it will at least put the Tory party out of its misery that little bit sooner …

Matt Goodwin’s Substack goes to more than 57,000+ subscribers from 167 countries around the world and thousands of paying supporters who support our work. Like our stuff? Then help us expand by becoming a paid supporter and access everything —the full archive, Live with Matt every Friday, exclusive posts, polling, leave comments, join the debate, get discounts, notice about events, and the knowledge you’re supporting independent writers who are pushing back against the grain. Join us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter/X and Facebook.