Why Reform is slipping in the polls and what it should do next before it's too late.

My thoughts on an important moment in British politics.

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For the first time in more than a year, the Labour Party is ahead in the polls. This week, under the new leadership of Andy Burnham, Labour replaced Reform UK and pushed Nigel Farage and his insurgent party into second place.

And it’s not just one poll.

Ever since Burnham’s appointment as Labour leader, several polls — by YouGov, Survation, More In Common, and Deltapoll — all suggest the race is narrowing.

But isn’t this just a ‘honeymoon’ for Andy Burnham, some will ask? A brief bounce that won’t really last?

Perhaps. After all, despite a blizzard of policy announcements, there’s little if any evidence that Burnham’s Labour has what it takes to fix Britain’s problems.

Labour still has no strategy for growth. No restraint on spending. No serious appetite for welfare reform. No answer to Britain’s spiralling debt crisis. No end to the small boats. And no desire to slash the Net Zero policies, rising taxes, and regulation that are draining business and the economy.

Talking about ending rough sleeping, funding social care, and getting more kids into technical education is fine; but none of this will resolve the deeper, structural problems facing Britain. None of it represents a fundamental change of direction.

Once people realise this, once a ‘summer of vibes’ is replaced by another winter of discontent, or perhaps even a major debt crisis, then Andy Burnham’s honeymoon will come to an abrupt end and Reform will once again push ahead.

That’s one theory.

Another is that Reform is struggling because of Project Fear 2. Coming after the first Project Fear against Brexit, in recent weeks Reform has faced a sustained attack by the media and political class that are using questions about a £5 million gift to Nigel Farage, billionaire crypto bros, and parliamentary standards to try and destroy Reform.

The attacks are not surprising. Lawfare, media investigations, alleged leaks of confidential information by parts of the British state, and direct attacks on the leader and his closest aides are all part of the same playbook that was used against anti-establishment politicians in America, France, and Romania.

And there’s no doubt the British people do not like what they are hearing about Reform – and the party should be honest about that.

Recent polling by YouGov suggests Nigel Farage is now, by far, the most likely of all leaders to be seen as “sleazy” – a view close to three-quarters of all people in Britain, including 40 per cent of Reform voters, now hold. The share of people who view the Reform party in the same way has also jumped by nearly 20-points to 70 per cent.

So, there’s no getting around this for Reform: it is an issue, and it is one that needs addressing. But I’m also not convinced Project Fear 2 is as fatal for the party as some think, or is even what lies at the root of its current slide in the polls.

In America, remember, large majorities of voters were just as likely to say they held unfavourable views of Donald Trump and did not think he had the personality or temperament to serve in high office – shortly before they gave him two terms. In 2024, before Trump’s second victory, a large majority of Americans openly said they thought he’d committed ‘serious federal crimes’ – yet Trump still won a landslide anyway.

And as the experience of America also suggests, the constant attacks against Nigel Farage and Reform alongside one or even two by-elections in Clacton could spectacularly backfire. It’s not hard at all to see how all this could yet allow Farage to cultivate the same image of Westminster that Boris Johnson curated shortly before he won a huge majority in 2019: an establishment that is in cahoots to stop the people.

The bigger problem for Reform, I think, lies elsewhere. And I write this as somebody who has stood for Reform, is close to Reform, and wants Reform to succeed.

If you look closely at the polls …

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