Unbelievable numbers
The UK's revolt on the right is just getting stronger and stronger
Matt Goodwin’s newsletter goes to 80,400 subscribers from 181 countries. Like our stuff? Then for the equivalent of buying us a pint become a paying supporter. Help us make a difference while gaining access to the full archive, exclusive posts, events, discounts, comments and the knowledge you’re supporting independent writers who are pushing back. You can join us on YouTube, Insta, TikTok, X and Facebook.
The political revolution sweeping through British politics, led by Nigel Farage and Reform, is getting stronger and stronger.
That’s the central message from the very latest bombshell polling, this week, that’s sent shockwaves through Westminster.
There were two big polls in recent days, which are fascinating for different reasons.
The first, from Ipsos-MORI, who traditionally downplay support for Reform, put the insurgent party on a shocking 34 per cent of the national vote, well ahead of Keir Starmer and the Labour government, on 25 per cent, and nearly 10-points ahead of Kemi Badenoch and the Tories, who are now all the way down on 15 per cent.
Astonishingly, as I pointed out on X, just 40 per cent of the British public now back one of the two big parties that have presided over all the economic and cultural chaos we see around us today —mass uncontrolled immigration, broken borders, two-tier policing, the mainstreaming of woke ideology, and more.
The Uniparty, the establishment, is now being rejected by the British people on a scale we have never seen before.
While many people from the ruling class have their heads in the sand, it is now clear that millions of voters have had enough of the policies being imposed on them from above, irrespective of what the public want.
And that’s not all.
Look into the detail of that same survey and you’ll find some other numbers that should be ringing some very loud alarm bells in Number 10 Downing Street.
Just 19 per cent of Brits —not even one in five—feel satisfied with Keir Starmer’s leadership, a prime minister who only last night was forced by his own MPs into a humiliating climb down on welfare reform.
With a net rating of MINUS 54, this makes Starmer one of the most unpopular prime ministers on record.
And this is not just about Starmer, by the way. His Labour government, too, is now wildly unpopular, with just 16 per cent of Brits satisfied with the direction of the government. It is, put simply, one of the most unpopular governments in history.
And it’s even worse for Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader who is visibly failing to cut through not just with her own Tory voters but the British public more generally.
Just 11 per cent of Brits say Badenoch’s doing a good job, making her the most unpopular leader of all, with roughly four in ten Tory voters from the last election having decamped to join Nigel Farage’s growing revolt on the right.
What does all this mean for the next general election, you might ask?
Well, this week, another pollster, YouGov, released the results of their first ‘MRP’ poll since the general election last year and it makes for shocking reading.
Obviously, this far out from a general election take everything with a pinch of salt. But such is the mood out there in the country that were an election held tomorrow Reform would emerge as the largest political party, and hence given the first opportunity to form a government.
In fact, according to YouGov, such an election would put Reform on 271 seats (up 266 seats), Labour on 178 (down 233), the Lib Dems on 81 seats (up nine), and the Tories down to just 46 seats (down 75).
In this scenario, where the big story of the day is political fragmentation, Reform would emerge as the largest party in a messy hung parliament, lacking the numbers required for a majority and most likely having to cobble together a coalition with what’s left of the Tories and/or the Democratic Unionist Party.
Nonetheless, it would still be a remarkable and historic result, representing the most impressive insurgency against the establishment since the rise of the Labour Party in the early twentieth century.
And it would take place exactly along the lines we have already mapped, right here in this newsletter, with Reform …
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Matt Goodwin to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.