The reshaping of British politics in 10 charts
These help you make sense of a historic moment in political history
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British politics is currently in a state of considerable flux. The two-party system is being transformed. Reform is on the rise. And the public debate is on the move. Here are ten charts that help you make sense of the wider public mood.
1. The two-party system is being completely reshaped. The rise of Nigel Farage and Reform now represents the most serious political insurgency since the rise of the Labour Party in the early twentieth century. This week, Reform averaged 30.2% of the national vote, to Labour’s 22% and the Conservative’s 18%. Together, the two established parties are now only attracting four in ten voters.
2. This is how the map of British politics would look were the numbers in one poll this week, by Find Out Now, replicated at a future general election. They put Reform 13-points ahead of the established parties. Electoral Calculus have produced a similar map showing what would happen at a general election were the results of the local elections replicated nationally. You can see that here.
3. What’s driving all this? Immigration is now the most important issue of all for British people, rated as even more important than the worst cost-of-living crisis since the Second World War. It is the first time since the Brexit wars, in 2016, that immigration has been the top issue. It reflects widespread public concern about both the illegal and legal immigration crisis —a concern I do not expect to diminish this side of the next general election, scheduled for 2029.
4. The vast majority of people in this country, some 85%, now want to see the overall rate of net migration into Britain slashed below 100,000 a year, while almost half the country want net migration reduced to zero or less than zero. Net migration was, most recently, 728,000. As I said on X, the divide between the elites and voters on this issue is enormous which is again benefitting Reform.
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