Is Andy Burnham about to call a snap election? The key numbers that should make everybody on the right WORRY and WAKE-UP.

The case for a snap election is clear - will Labour take it?

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Andy Burnham could be about to call a snap general election. Or at least that’s the view among a few people who I rate in Westminster.

Such as James Johnson, the pollster, who has just put forward a compelling case for why Team Burnham should hold a snap election and extend Labour’s grip on power until at least 2031, if not longer.

The argument rests on three key points, all of which should be noted by people who are seriously interested in the future of this country: a consolidated Left; a divided Right; and a closing window of opportunity for Andy Burnham and the Left.

First, ever since Andy Burnham’s appointment as prime minister, Labour’s been gradually pulling ahead in the polls. Since Keir Starmer announced he was going, Labour’s average in the polls has crept upwards by close to five points, to 25%.

While this is still nearly ten-points lower than what Labour polled at the last general election, in 2024, amid a fragmented political landscape it’s still enough for Labour to return to the top of the polls, forcing Nigel Farage and Reform UK, who have been sliding since January, into second place.

What explains the shift? Crucially, it’s not just a ‘Burnham bounce’. Labour’s getting stronger because it is consolidating the left-wing vote.

We saw this first in Makerfield, where despite being in government Labour increased its share of the vote while both the Greens and Liberal Democrats lost roughly 10-points between them. And now we are seeing it nationally.

In the last three months alone, the share of Green Party voters switching to Labour has surged three-fold to 16%. The share of Lib Dems doing so has more than doubled to 12%. And the share of people who voted Labour in 2024 and now plan to do so again at the next general election is up more than ten points to some 60%.

While it’s still very early days, what all this suggests is that left-wing and socially liberal voters are starting to consolidate in a significant way around Andy Burnham as a way of not only signalling their socially liberal values but fending off what they see as the growing electoral threat from Reform UK.

And this could be just the start of a much bigger strategic shift on the left. As James Johnson rightly points out, if you look at who these voters think would make the ‘best prime minister’ – Andy Burnham or Nigel Farage – then it’s not even close.

More than three-quarters of Labour and Lib Dem voters, and more than seven in ten Greens, say Andy Burnham. Throw in a general election campaign that will inevitably see much of the left and the media class in Britain portray Nigel Farage and Reform UK as posing a severe existential threat to democracy, as heralding the return of ‘fascism’ or some kind of ‘extremist’ takeover, and it’s not hard to see what happens.

While such claims are obviously nonsense, they will further encourage socially liberal and left-wing voters to make a strategic calculation and flock to Burnham en masse. And this is especially important given a second crucial point, which I’ve already pointed to. A divided Right.

Consider the last two general elections in this country.