What Nigel's Thinking

Inside the mind of the man who could still decide Britain's next election

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Here's a thought experiment. I’d like you to try and imagine the last twenty years of British politics without one man —Nigel Farage.

No renegade populist endlessly attacking the European Union. No radical outsider relentlessly targeting immigration, pushing it from the margins to the mainstream.

No maverick talking about taking back control or breaking apart the Red Wall long before it was fashionable. No firebrand continually breathing down the neck of the Conservative Party, demanding a referendum. And then no agitator campaigning all over again to ensure the outcome of that referendum was upheld and enacted.

The point is you can't do it. Nigel Farage has been absolutely central to every twist and turn which has completely reshaped Britain over the last decade. Despite never winning a seat of his own in Westminster he will still go down in the history books as both the most underestimated and highly influential politician of the modern era.

Which is why whatever he says should be taken very seriously. And this week he said something very interesting. According to private polling —which I know for a fact he’s been conducting for a while now—were he to run at the general election next year he’d likely win somewhere in the region of 4-5 million votes.

Four to five million votes.

More than what his old UK Independence Party polled in 2015. Not too far behind what Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats won at their peak in 2010. And more than enough to completely bury Rishi Sunak and the Tories while also complicating the Labour Party’s quest for a majority, too.

So what’s Nigel thinking? What’s this all about? And what’s really going on inside the mind of one of Britain's most controversial yet impactful politicians?

Well, I'll tell you. I’ve been interviewing him for more than a decade, including most recently a couple of weeks ago. And when you spend that amount of time with somebody you get a good handle on their instincts and mindset.

So, here’s what I think he’s thinking. And what might be coming next …