What if Nigel Stands?

Farage, Reform, and the future of the Right

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The Tory meltdown continues. Across all polls this week, the Tories slumped to a new low of 23% of the vote. In one poll, by YouGov, they are on a shocking 19%.

And that’s not all. Look below the headline numbers and you’ll find the wheels are well and truly coming off the Tory party.

Today, remarkably, the Tories have lost more than half their 2019 voters.

They are attracting only one in three Brexit voters and pensioners, and just one in five voters across England —all of whom were once their core voters.

Now look at the insurgent Reform party.

In the same poll, by YouGov, Reform is on 15% --its highest share of the vote to date. It is now only four points behind the Tories.

And look again at the detail.

Remarkably, Reform is now polling ahead of the Tories among men, Brexit voters, northerners, the working-class, and is just two points behind in England.

The party, which is led by Richard Tice and just secured its first Member of Parliament after Lee Anderson’s defection, is attracting close to one in three 2019 Tory voters and more than one-quarter of Britain’s pensioners —all groups which reflect where Reform is strongest on the country’s political map.

This is a movement, in other words, that has momentum. Which raises an obvious question —if Reform is polling these numbers now then what happens if its honorary chairman, Nigel Farage, decides to return as leader? What then?

I’ve known Nigel Farage and his closest lieutenants for more than a decade, some of whom I still speak to on a weekly basis and know very well indeed.

I have a good sense of what Farage will be thinking and the factors he’ll be weighing up. So, here are my thoughts, all 1,500 words, on what a Farage return might mean for the polls, the Tories, the looming general election and, potentially, the longer-term realignment of the right.