A refreshing shift of allegiances that gives real hope for the future of our nation. So why am I increasingly worried? Because I fear that the Labour Party will accelerate their hateful and damaging policies realising that two terms is increasingly unlikely.
Because I fear that they will move to class Reform as a " Far Right" organisation akin to terrorists and ban them from being duly elected - France and Germany being examples.
And because I fear that at the very least they may ditch the first past the post system in order to thwart Reform's chances of winning an outright majority.
The gloves are off and I strongly suspect things are going to get very dirty indeed.
However, Reform needs to be about more than against mass immigration, whether legal or not.
Which is why I found Douglas Carswell's seminal Telegraph article recently so valuable. Carswell outlined in his article how a right-of-centre party might approach becoming the government next time around. In his article he outlined the steps by which such a government would best address the numerous obstacles it would face from what might be called the 'deep state'. A Reform or Reform-Tory government would face immense opposition from the civil service, judges and lawyers, media, academia, the House of Lords and of course the Labour Party.
I sincerely hope his wise words will be listened to by a party that is great at capturing the public imagination, but which sometimes seems a little thin on details.
I hope Nigel Farage accepts that a Reform government will need more than him, and him alone. In the best of cases he'll be Prime Minister after all. Not President.
Agree. Badenoch's problem, or one of them, is that a plurality of her parliamentary party are liberal One Nationers. The very people behind the Conservative disaster in last year's election. If she comes out as a true blue conservative, they might 'do a Truss' on her. Jenrick, whom I quite like, would face the same problem.
I'm starting to think the Conservative Party is beyond hope. It is infested with Blue Lib Dems in both the Parliamentary Party and CCHQ and any attempt to move "right" that is towards the centre 40 years ago, will be resisted by them as they still worship at the Shrine of their Lord and Master, Tony Blair.
I read all the way through to the end of this excellent analysis, then got to the question at then end.
The elite class already realise what is happening, and I'm sure they will do something about it. They have too much to lose by ignoring it. I fear that the "something" will be undemocratic, dishonest and display an astonishing level of double standards.
The BBC in particular will be under no illusion about their prospects under a Reform led government, so I expect a relentless smear campaign to begin in earnest.
Every effort will be made to normalise the idea that Reform UK is a far right English nationalist party (the fact that one in three of the population may support them will count for nothing).
Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have a viable political strategy to counter Reform UK. This will soon become obvious to them if it isn't already.
The elections which were postponed this year to allow time for local government restructuring may even be delayed again with the excuse being that the process hasn't been completed (of course, this won't happen if the political tide turns in the uniparty's favour). We are likely to see other legislative and administrative tactics deployed as well.
Yes, the elite class do indeed understand what is happening. Their response will be not be a positive one. They don't want to learn or adapt, they want to remain in power.
Thank you for this explanation of what is going on. It makes things very clear. It also shows there is real hope for a profound change in this country. I know there are four years to go and many uncertainties along the way but there is at least the possibility of things being different in the future.
Spot on Matt. I have never felt more politically purposeful in my life . And a strange visceral unspoken connection to millions of other people I last felt at the Brexit vote . It’s going to get very dirty, I believe Starmer is planning to run off to the international arena ( as usual) and his strategy will be to paint Farage as a Putin apologist . All that shows is Starmer really does not have a clue about what is going on in this country . I don’t care what mud is thrown from which side . I believe some very impressive people will be drawn to the Reform banner and the who and the what will begin to become clear .
Nothing will change if you keep calling these treacherous, corrupt, Britain-hating Marxist-Communists 'the elite class'. There is nothing remotely elite about them. Very few people on the Left in politics have ever run businesses, hired, fired, created...or done anything other than play the Public Sector system of ever increasing, unfounded salaries, perks and pensions. 'The Elite Class' as you keep calling them Matt, are only fixated on power and doing what the UN and other bodies tell them to do. And who pulls the UN's strings? It's China. They are FAR MORE powerful than most people realise and that's why Trump is causing so much upset with the pro-China, can't-say-anything-anti-China media, my-business-depends-on-low-wage/no-wage China class, who got rich trading with China, making fortunes but actually funding China's MASSIVE war machine. How big is the new Chinese embassy going to be in London? When will the substack scribblers wake up to what's really happening? And when will Farage DELEGATE and appoint some competent Spokesmen and women in key policy areas? One man band Reform are massively vulnerable.
All true, but campaigning must now transform into delivery. Reform now has Lincolnshire County Council, a Mayor (Jenkyns) and a local MP (Tice). Linicolnshire is now Reform and they must now make a noticeable difference before the next election.
The Mayor as Police Commissioner could make a good start by ending two tier policing. That will be a challenge as the Home Office and Senior Police officers resist. We shall see, but it is now for Reform to fail or, one hopes, succeed.
A lot of what people voted for depends on national governmwent not local goverment, but if Reform make no positive difference in Lincolnshire then it becomes ammuntion to be used against them. As Reform continue to gain momentum and local control, to be followed by the Senedd in Wales next year, so will they acquire a record to be judged against in 2029. Delivery is different from campaigning and Reform is about to be tested on that.
Excellent stuff Matt. I fear the Labour Party will now have woken up to the reality that Reform poses a serious threat to their survival so will deploy their dirty tricks department without delay. My guess is that such a tactic could result in a rise in Reform’s popularity!
Bloody good article Matt. And as far as the powers that be are concerned I can only think they don't want to get it, or they'd have to out themselves as the anti democratic authoritarians they truly are. Thanks.
So ironic that Reform’s strongest performance happened in Blair’s old Sedgefield seat and how Regorm now control Durham Council.
I was listening to Owen Jones on YouTube earlier (I don’t make a habit of this for medical reasons) but he’s advocating such change in Labour that the party would inevitably split. He’s well connected in the Labour movement and his views shouldn’t be discounted.
Matt's views are strongly agreed with. But the reluctance of the elite class to recognise what is happening is surely due to an unwillingness to do so. They simply wish to ignore it for as long as as they can in the hope that it will eventually fade away. Nothing new in that. It has been happening for decades. But there is another aspect which perhaps is contributing to Reform's success. I am referring to the fact that a large part of the UK population have failed to vote in elections in recent decades presumably because they have seen no point in doing so. Nigel Farage's charisma and repeated litany of governmental failures, together with the appalling impact to date of current Labour Government decisions, has finally struck a chord and persuaded their involvement. Long may it last.
It looks great. Congratulations to all concerned. It is to be hoped that these people literally clean up their council areas. Whenever I am in Britain I am struck by how little civic pride there is and how dirty the streets and pavements are.
I would like to see a resolution of the Rupert Lowe and Ben Habib affairs. It’s a good start but there is still a lot of mess left behind that is being studiously ignored.
I have to hand it to Farage, he's got results unlike Lowe, Habib, Fox and all the others by the way side. At the end of the day, the patriotic alternative to big woke government needs power and Farage is the man of the hour if he keeps getting votes.
- Will Reform implode? Hopefully there are no more Rupert Lowe bustups ahead.
- Will the establishment successfully undermine Reform?
But I don't think the revolt will go away until the immigration issue is resolved to the satisfaction of the majority - which it could be by a left-wing government if it weren't ideologically captured - see Denmark.
You are a vv good academic plus an excellent presenter on TV
Please use your influence on Nigel, the other Reform MPs , mayors etc to create a good strategy and policy with SLL on same wavelength and definitely use Andrea J and Ms Pochin a lot in media
It will show electorate plus snide press we are representative etc
Much reminds me of the classic academic ice yrs ago headed : Margaret Thatchers Eorking Class Tories :
Cant remember the academics name You will Matt
And get Tim Montgomerie onto every committee and all TV RADIO things
Excellent survey of a building trend. It ain't finished yet.
As I have said many times before, there is a vacuum at the core of the Conservative Party where there ought to be a conservative philosophy of government in the national interest. Conservatism has left it and found a new home in Reform. It is good honest common sense patriotism.
A refreshing shift of allegiances that gives real hope for the future of our nation. So why am I increasingly worried? Because I fear that the Labour Party will accelerate their hateful and damaging policies realising that two terms is increasingly unlikely.
Because I fear that they will move to class Reform as a " Far Right" organisation akin to terrorists and ban them from being duly elected - France and Germany being examples.
And because I fear that at the very least they may ditch the first past the post system in order to thwart Reform's chances of winning an outright majority.
The gloves are off and I strongly suspect things are going to get very dirty indeed.
I couldn't agree with you more Matt.
However, Reform needs to be about more than against mass immigration, whether legal or not.
Which is why I found Douglas Carswell's seminal Telegraph article recently so valuable. Carswell outlined in his article how a right-of-centre party might approach becoming the government next time around. In his article he outlined the steps by which such a government would best address the numerous obstacles it would face from what might be called the 'deep state'. A Reform or Reform-Tory government would face immense opposition from the civil service, judges and lawyers, media, academia, the House of Lords and of course the Labour Party.
I sincerely hope his wise words will be listened to by a party that is great at capturing the public imagination, but which sometimes seems a little thin on details.
I hope Nigel Farage accepts that a Reform government will need more than him, and him alone. In the best of cases he'll be Prime Minister after all. Not President.
I agree with Douglas.
I don't care who gets our country back as long as it happens.
I think Jenrick is sincere and Kemi may well be. But I don't think either can carry the bulk of the parliamentary party with them.
Agree. Badenoch's problem, or one of them, is that a plurality of her parliamentary party are liberal One Nationers. The very people behind the Conservative disaster in last year's election. If she comes out as a true blue conservative, they might 'do a Truss' on her. Jenrick, whom I quite like, would face the same problem.
I'm starting to think the Conservative Party is beyond hope. It is infested with Blue Lib Dems in both the Parliamentary Party and CCHQ and any attempt to move "right" that is towards the centre 40 years ago, will be resisted by them as they still worship at the Shrine of their Lord and Master, Tony Blair.
I read all the way through to the end of this excellent analysis, then got to the question at then end.
The elite class already realise what is happening, and I'm sure they will do something about it. They have too much to lose by ignoring it. I fear that the "something" will be undemocratic, dishonest and display an astonishing level of double standards.
The BBC in particular will be under no illusion about their prospects under a Reform led government, so I expect a relentless smear campaign to begin in earnest.
Every effort will be made to normalise the idea that Reform UK is a far right English nationalist party (the fact that one in three of the population may support them will count for nothing).
Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have a viable political strategy to counter Reform UK. This will soon become obvious to them if it isn't already.
The elections which were postponed this year to allow time for local government restructuring may even be delayed again with the excuse being that the process hasn't been completed (of course, this won't happen if the political tide turns in the uniparty's favour). We are likely to see other legislative and administrative tactics deployed as well.
Yes, the elite class do indeed understand what is happening. Their response will be not be a positive one. They don't want to learn or adapt, they want to remain in power.
Thank you for this explanation of what is going on. It makes things very clear. It also shows there is real hope for a profound change in this country. I know there are four years to go and many uncertainties along the way but there is at least the possibility of things being different in the future.
Spot on Matt. I have never felt more politically purposeful in my life . And a strange visceral unspoken connection to millions of other people I last felt at the Brexit vote . It’s going to get very dirty, I believe Starmer is planning to run off to the international arena ( as usual) and his strategy will be to paint Farage as a Putin apologist . All that shows is Starmer really does not have a clue about what is going on in this country . I don’t care what mud is thrown from which side . I believe some very impressive people will be drawn to the Reform banner and the who and the what will begin to become clear .
Nothing will change if you keep calling these treacherous, corrupt, Britain-hating Marxist-Communists 'the elite class'. There is nothing remotely elite about them. Very few people on the Left in politics have ever run businesses, hired, fired, created...or done anything other than play the Public Sector system of ever increasing, unfounded salaries, perks and pensions. 'The Elite Class' as you keep calling them Matt, are only fixated on power and doing what the UN and other bodies tell them to do. And who pulls the UN's strings? It's China. They are FAR MORE powerful than most people realise and that's why Trump is causing so much upset with the pro-China, can't-say-anything-anti-China media, my-business-depends-on-low-wage/no-wage China class, who got rich trading with China, making fortunes but actually funding China's MASSIVE war machine. How big is the new Chinese embassy going to be in London? When will the substack scribblers wake up to what's really happening? And when will Farage DELEGATE and appoint some competent Spokesmen and women in key policy areas? One man band Reform are massively vulnerable.
All true, but campaigning must now transform into delivery. Reform now has Lincolnshire County Council, a Mayor (Jenkyns) and a local MP (Tice). Linicolnshire is now Reform and they must now make a noticeable difference before the next election.
The Mayor as Police Commissioner could make a good start by ending two tier policing. That will be a challenge as the Home Office and Senior Police officers resist. We shall see, but it is now for Reform to fail or, one hopes, succeed.
A lot of what people voted for depends on national governmwent not local goverment, but if Reform make no positive difference in Lincolnshire then it becomes ammuntion to be used against them. As Reform continue to gain momentum and local control, to be followed by the Senedd in Wales next year, so will they acquire a record to be judged against in 2029. Delivery is different from campaigning and Reform is about to be tested on that.
Excellent stuff Matt. I fear the Labour Party will now have woken up to the reality that Reform poses a serious threat to their survival so will deploy their dirty tricks department without delay. My guess is that such a tactic could result in a rise in Reform’s popularity!
Bloody good article Matt. And as far as the powers that be are concerned I can only think they don't want to get it, or they'd have to out themselves as the anti democratic authoritarians they truly are. Thanks.
So ironic that Reform’s strongest performance happened in Blair’s old Sedgefield seat and how Regorm now control Durham Council.
I was listening to Owen Jones on YouTube earlier (I don’t make a habit of this for medical reasons) but he’s advocating such change in Labour that the party would inevitably split. He’s well connected in the Labour movement and his views shouldn’t be discounted.
If Owen Jones thinks it a good idea then we must hope the Labour Party take it up as it is bound to be an unmitigated disaster for Labour.
Replying to The Martyr
The thing about Owen Jones is that I find him irresistibly charming so unlike you, my personal medical complaints aren’t exacerbated 😂😂😂
But ultimately, his ideology is often unpalatable.
Thank you for your posts and your dry wit 👀
Matt's views are strongly agreed with. But the reluctance of the elite class to recognise what is happening is surely due to an unwillingness to do so. They simply wish to ignore it for as long as as they can in the hope that it will eventually fade away. Nothing new in that. It has been happening for decades. But there is another aspect which perhaps is contributing to Reform's success. I am referring to the fact that a large part of the UK population have failed to vote in elections in recent decades presumably because they have seen no point in doing so. Nigel Farage's charisma and repeated litany of governmental failures, together with the appalling impact to date of current Labour Government decisions, has finally struck a chord and persuaded their involvement. Long may it last.
It looks great. Congratulations to all concerned. It is to be hoped that these people literally clean up their council areas. Whenever I am in Britain I am struck by how little civic pride there is and how dirty the streets and pavements are.
I would like to see a resolution of the Rupert Lowe and Ben Habib affairs. It’s a good start but there is still a lot of mess left behind that is being studiously ignored.
I have to hand it to Farage, he's got results unlike Lowe, Habib, Fox and all the others by the way side. At the end of the day, the patriotic alternative to big woke government needs power and Farage is the man of the hour if he keeps getting votes.
The other questions are:-
- Will Reform implode? Hopefully there are no more Rupert Lowe bustups ahead.
- Will the establishment successfully undermine Reform?
But I don't think the revolt will go away until the immigration issue is resolved to the satisfaction of the majority - which it could be by a left-wing government if it weren't ideologically captured - see Denmark.
Wow Another effect illuminating piece Matt
You are a vv good academic plus an excellent presenter on TV
Please use your influence on Nigel, the other Reform MPs , mayors etc to create a good strategy and policy with SLL on same wavelength and definitely use Andrea J and Ms Pochin a lot in media
It will show electorate plus snide press we are representative etc
Much reminds me of the classic academic ice yrs ago headed : Margaret Thatchers Eorking Class Tories :
Cant remember the academics name You will Matt
And get Tim Montgomerie onto every committee and all TV RADIO things
Well done all
Thank you
Excellent survey of a building trend. It ain't finished yet.
As I have said many times before, there is a vacuum at the core of the Conservative Party where there ought to be a conservative philosophy of government in the national interest. Conservatism has left it and found a new home in Reform. It is good honest common sense patriotism.