The Conservative vote is collapsing
What we are witnessing in the polls is truly remarkable
The Conservative Party’s vote is in freefall. As I warned a few weeks ago in The Sunday Times, Britain’s governing party, adrift from the realignment, has steadily been losing ownership of all the key issues and losing touch with its 2019 voters.
And then came the mini-budget last Friday, which has poured gasoline over this fire and sent the Conservative Party’s vote to new lows. Let me be clear. What we are now witnessing in the polls is nothing short of remarkable. It is the complete collapse of the post-Brexit Conservative coalition.
Across all of the polls that were in the field after Trussonomics went live last Friday —policies which I explored in my last piece— the Conservative’s average share of the vote has plunged to just 25 per cent. To put that figure in context, it is significantly lower than what John Major polled in 1997 and what William Hague polled in 2001 —both of whom suffered humiliating losses at the hands of New Labour.
Meanwhile, Labour’s average lead in the polls has now widened, astonishingly, to 26 points (!) We have seen nothing like this since the 1990s, since New Labour and Tony Blair were on the rise. While Keir Starmer’s own leadership ratings leave much to be desired, it is clear that, after a successful conference, he has both stabilised the party and put it in the driving seat. Were the polling numbers this week to be repeated at a general election then the result would be a huge Labour majority and a complete Conservative wipeout. So, what’s going on under the bonnet and what do I think is important? Let me share a few bits of data, charts and my personal view.
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