Team Sunak are turning things around

Why some of the latest numbers are good for No 10

I keep meeting people who tell me they’re certain Britain is heading toward a huge Labour majority, that after thirteen years of Conservatives rule, after Partygate, after the disaster that was Liz Truss, the Tories are hurtling toward a 1997-style wipeout.

I don’t doubt this is a likely outcome. I’ve already written about how gloomy voters are when it comes to the economy, which remains the most important issue in the country, and how the Tories are getting absolutely smashed on this issue.

This is why they are still languishing in the polls. And remember the global context, too. Even if you ignore the immense damage Boris Johnson and Liz Truss inflicted on their party, the basic story that’s been unfolding at elections around the world ever since inflation reared its ugly head is incumbents getting slaughtered.

From America to Sweden, France to Italy, Columbia to Sri Lanka, governments which have presided over a sharp rise in the cost-of-living have either been thrown out of power or, as Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron can testify, seriously weakened.

This is why, as I told a conference for investors in the City of London this week, I currently put the chance of another Conservative majority at no more than 10 per cent.

But, at the same time, if you look a little closer, if you drill into the data, you’ll find more than a few signs that this picture is starting to change, that things are finally beginning to improve for Team Sunak.

Here’s what I’ve been telling people in Westminster and the City, here are some of the things I think many people haven’t yet noticed, and this is what I think’s behind it.