Prepare for the Populist Wave

What the latest evidence tell us about the future

Matt Goodwin’s Substack goes to more than 57,000+ subscribers from 167 countries around the world and thousands of paying supporters who support our work. Like our stuff? Then help us expand by becoming a paid supporter and access everything —the full archive, Live with Matt every Friday, exclusive posts, polling, leave comments, join the debate, get discounts, notice about events, and the knowledge you’re supporting independent writers who are pushing back against the grain. Join us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter/X and Facebook.

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Getty

One of the most remarkable things about the recent NatCon conference in Brussels was the hysterical reaction to it. Rather than reflect on why so many voters across the West are turning out to support national populists who joined the event, many people on the left find it easier to put their fingers in their ears, denounce everybody as ‘far right’ and try and shut down these conversations altogether.

And this is entirely consistent with the evidence. Across the West, academic studies consistently find that it’s left progressives who dominate the universities, schools, museums, galleries, publishing, the BBC, and more who are most likely to unfriend people whose political views they disagree with on Facebook, block them on Twitter/X, and express discomfort if one of their relatives has a relationship with a Conservative, a Brexiteer, or, god forbid, a Trump voter.

But this week two new pieces of evidence underline why this strategy of putting one’s head in the sand, of trying to shut down populism without addressing its underlying drivers, will be completely unsustainable over the long-term. While many left-leaning columnists and analysts comfort themselves by proclaiming we’ve reached ‘Peak Populism’, the evidence that’s emerging points in a very different direction. A populist wave is coming and it’s going to be bigger than anything we’ve seen so far. Here’s why.