if Restore demonstrably cost Reform the seat then many of those 'patriots' that enabled it will wake up on Friday with a severe dose of buyers remorse
and not repeat it at the GE
It was inevitable that Rupert's robust rhetoric would attract the harder core of the right and therefore perhaps it is in the long term interests to illuminate the stark
implications of a Restore vote now rather than at the GE when it really counts
Thanks for this, Matt. Would those voting Restore really have given their vote to Reform if Lowe had pulled Restore out? My impression is that Restore exist only to hate Reform.
I agree if the Restores vote is the difference between Reform winning or loosing, I think we can assume Restore hates Reform more than Andy Burnham and Labour.
If Reform UK were to win Makerfield despite the final polls, it would be a serious setback for both Labour and the Conservatives.
It would point to a deeper shift in British politics, increase the pressure on Keir Starmer, and strengthen Reform’s claim to be the main force on the right.
The polling picture is more complicated than a headline Reform lead suggests. On a generic Westminster ballot, the party is 11 points ahead of Labour in Makerfield. But when Andy Burnham is named as Labour’s candidate, the race flips: Survation puts Labour ahead by 43% to 40%, while Opinium gives Labour a similar five-point lead.
Even so, Reform has reason to be confident. In the May 2026 local elections, it won all eight council wards in Makerfield and took roughly half the vote.
One risk for Reform is Restore Britain, which is taking votes on its right flank. Its candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, is polling between 5% and 8% — enough, as Nigel Farage has acknowledged, to matter in a close contest.
Reform’s own reported figures still point to a narrow Labour win, with Labour on about 45.5% and Reform on 41%.
If Labour lost a seat like Makerfield, even with Burnham as its candidate, the political fallout would be immediate. Starmer’s authority would take a heavy blow, and questions about his leadership would become much harder to contain.
It would also complicate Burnham’s position. A failed return to Westminster in such a high-profile contest would weaken, rather than strengthen, his claim as a future Labour leader.
For Reform, however, a win would be a major statement. Beating Labour while also seeing off a challenge from Restore Britain would show that Nigel Farage’s party can hold together the populist right.
After its by-election breakthrough in Runcorn and Helsby, winning Makerfield would suggest Reform can now compete not only in former Conservative seats, but deep inside Labour territory too.
My view is that if Reform can't win in a seat where 65% voted Brexit and all council wards were won then the red wall voters' more recent move to Reform is very fickle. A problem which would then likely be exacerbated nationwide if Burnham becomes PM.
Matt, if Reform doesn't win in an area that I believe voted 65% in favour of Brexit and Reform won every council ward in the local elections then how can they win anywhere? Also, please can you respond to Mrs. Bucket's repeated suggestion on here about flyering all the stats in form of a newspaper through voters' doors. I'd be curious for your comments on that, as I'm sure Mrs. Bucket is.
We helped canvass at Gorton and Denton and also Makerfield. A lot of residents expressed canvassing fatigue - do you think this could be a problem and simply turn voters off voting for us?
Rob Kenyon didn’t push Andy Burnham into second place, but his result was still notable. He won more than 27,000 votes, taking a 35% share.
In Makerfield, 77,478 people were eligible to vote, but turnout was just 59%, meaning more than 31,000 stayed at home. In a Labour heartland and so-called Red Wall seat, Burnham’s win was hardly a shock. The bigger question is whether it gives him a route to challenge Starmer.
Only Reform, Labour and Restore kept their deposits. The Conservatives managed just 2.2%, the Greens 0.7%, and the Lib Dems 0.4%. Restore Britain’s 7% was not enough to be seen as a serious vote-splitting factor.
The Lib Dems’ 0.4% was their worst ever by-election result. The Conservatives’ 2.2% was only just above their record low of 1.9% in Gorton and Denton four months ago.
Some voters may have backed Burnham tactically to keep Reform out, while others may have seen him as a way to weaken Starmer, or simply preferred his profile and record as Greater Manchester mayor.
Burnham’s Makerfield win was expected, but it should not be read as a guide to the next General Election. National polling still suggests only a little over half of 2024 Labour voters are currently minded to back the party again.
If Burnham were to oust Keir Starmer, he would likely face pressure to call an early General Election while he had momentum. That would also expose him to public anger over Labour’s record in government.
At the next General Election, voters will need to judge which party offers the clearest route out of the country’s current problems. For many, that choice will be Reform UK.
If Reform are licking their wounds this morning and looking daggers in the direction of Restore, then they’ve learnt very little from this by-election result.
The margin by which they lost had several components, the smallest of which was the vote that went to Restore.
Burnham’s track record and reputation locally no doubt had a lot to do with him retaining the core of the Labour vote and drawing in a large personal vote.
However, in my opinion, what was always going to loose Reform this election was the quality of their candidate.
The 35% who voted for Rob Kenyon were prepared to condone the various unsavoury comments made by him in social postings. Even Nigel Farage has dismissed them as laddish locker banter and thereby hangs the issue.
If the leader of Reform is willing accept a candidate with this sort of attitude and outlook into his party, exactly what sort of government are we in for?
Faced with such an option, is it any wonder that those who were undecided, might of otherwise consider Reform as a serious alternative to Andy Burnham?
After hearing the result this morning, I can’t help thinking that Burnham is now terrified and hasn’t a clue what to do. He’s asked the Cabinet to stay on! His ‘King of the North’ bubble will burst very quickly. An ‘Emperor has no clothes’ moment for sure. The ‘markets’ will not let him do anything. There is no money left. If has the nerve to call a GE he’s in for a nasty shock. Am so grateful to the whole of Reform for fighting our corner. Also, Burnham is not representative of the support in the May council elections etc. in the area as a whole.
Morning Matt and great to see you yesterday at Makerfield. Like many Reform voters woke up this morning to the news that not only has Andy Burnham won he has won by a nearly 10k majority and a swing to Labour from Reform of nearly 4%
This was a seat that was tailor made for a potential Reform victory notwithstanding the name recognition of Andy Burnham and us utilising a local candidate who had stood for the seat at the last election.
My questions
1. Nigel has been a key founder of success for Reform however he is a 'marmite' politician and the question needs to be raised has he taken Reform as far as he can and does it need a new leader. On the doorstep I found that a lot of the female vote locally distrusted Nigel and we also got push back on the candidates views.
2. 3 out of the last 4 by elections Reform has lost despite some high hopes and Sarah Pochins win was by the thinnest of margins. Is there a need to review the lessons learnt by the Head Office team as to why Reform is struggling to get over the line (It may not be just tactical and sectarian voting)
3. If Starmer resigns and there is a leadership competition and Burnham wins say in time for the Labour conference, will he call a snap election for the autumn knowing that at present neither Reform nor the Greens have their prospective parliamentary candidates in situ and that he may not have Starmers majority but still count on having more than enough for a working majority to being in for example PR to lock in a progressive electoral caucus (Greens and Lib Labs) and block the right who are unwilling to work with one another
if Restore demonstrably cost Reform the seat then many of those 'patriots' that enabled it will wake up on Friday with a severe dose of buyers remorse
and not repeat it at the GE
It was inevitable that Rupert's robust rhetoric would attract the harder core of the right and therefore perhaps it is in the long term interests to illuminate the stark
implications of a Restore vote now rather than at the GE when it really counts
Hello Matt,
If Reform plus Restore votes exceed Labour’s ,or come close.. what then for the right?
I can cope with Burnham for a while if it means getting rid of Starmer/Hermer/Khan but we need an election to get this country back on track
Thanks for this, Matt. Would those voting Restore really have given their vote to Reform if Lowe had pulled Restore out? My impression is that Restore exist only to hate Reform.
I agree if the Restores vote is the difference between Reform winning or loosing, I think we can assume Restore hates Reform more than Andy Burnham and Labour.
If Reform UK were to win Makerfield despite the final polls, it would be a serious setback for both Labour and the Conservatives.
It would point to a deeper shift in British politics, increase the pressure on Keir Starmer, and strengthen Reform’s claim to be the main force on the right.
The polling picture is more complicated than a headline Reform lead suggests. On a generic Westminster ballot, the party is 11 points ahead of Labour in Makerfield. But when Andy Burnham is named as Labour’s candidate, the race flips: Survation puts Labour ahead by 43% to 40%, while Opinium gives Labour a similar five-point lead.
Even so, Reform has reason to be confident. In the May 2026 local elections, it won all eight council wards in Makerfield and took roughly half the vote.
One risk for Reform is Restore Britain, which is taking votes on its right flank. Its candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, is polling between 5% and 8% — enough, as Nigel Farage has acknowledged, to matter in a close contest.
Reform’s own reported figures still point to a narrow Labour win, with Labour on about 45.5% and Reform on 41%.
If Labour lost a seat like Makerfield, even with Burnham as its candidate, the political fallout would be immediate. Starmer’s authority would take a heavy blow, and questions about his leadership would become much harder to contain.
It would also complicate Burnham’s position. A failed return to Westminster in such a high-profile contest would weaken, rather than strengthen, his claim as a future Labour leader.
For Reform, however, a win would be a major statement. Beating Labour while also seeing off a challenge from Restore Britain would show that Nigel Farage’s party can hold together the populist right.
After its by-election breakthrough in Runcorn and Helsby, winning Makerfield would suggest Reform can now compete not only in former Conservative seats, but deep inside Labour territory too.
It's all to play for, wouldn't you agree, Matt?
My view is that if Reform can't win in a seat where 65% voted Brexit and all council wards were won then the red wall voters' more recent move to Reform is very fickle. A problem which would then likely be exacerbated nationwide if Burnham becomes PM.
Matt, if Reform doesn't win in an area that I believe voted 65% in favour of Brexit and Reform won every council ward in the local elections then how can they win anywhere? Also, please can you respond to Mrs. Bucket's repeated suggestion on here about flyering all the stats in form of a newspaper through voters' doors. I'd be curious for your comments on that, as I'm sure Mrs. Bucket is.
I think Makerfield is an exception. Burnham using his King if the North blurb plus Labour voters wanting Starmer out.
We helped canvass at Gorton and Denton and also Makerfield. A lot of residents expressed canvassing fatigue - do you think this could be a problem and simply turn voters off voting for us?
Voters need to stop moaning and vote!
Rob Kenyon didn’t push Andy Burnham into second place, but his result was still notable. He won more than 27,000 votes, taking a 35% share.
In Makerfield, 77,478 people were eligible to vote, but turnout was just 59%, meaning more than 31,000 stayed at home. In a Labour heartland and so-called Red Wall seat, Burnham’s win was hardly a shock. The bigger question is whether it gives him a route to challenge Starmer.
Only Reform, Labour and Restore kept their deposits. The Conservatives managed just 2.2%, the Greens 0.7%, and the Lib Dems 0.4%. Restore Britain’s 7% was not enough to be seen as a serious vote-splitting factor.
The Lib Dems’ 0.4% was their worst ever by-election result. The Conservatives’ 2.2% was only just above their record low of 1.9% in Gorton and Denton four months ago.
Some voters may have backed Burnham tactically to keep Reform out, while others may have seen him as a way to weaken Starmer, or simply preferred his profile and record as Greater Manchester mayor.
Burnham’s Makerfield win was expected, but it should not be read as a guide to the next General Election. National polling still suggests only a little over half of 2024 Labour voters are currently minded to back the party again.
If Burnham were to oust Keir Starmer, he would likely face pressure to call an early General Election while he had momentum. That would also expose him to public anger over Labour’s record in government.
At the next General Election, voters will need to judge which party offers the clearest route out of the country’s current problems. For many, that choice will be Reform UK.
Well put, thank you.
If Reform are licking their wounds this morning and looking daggers in the direction of Restore, then they’ve learnt very little from this by-election result.
The margin by which they lost had several components, the smallest of which was the vote that went to Restore.
Burnham’s track record and reputation locally no doubt had a lot to do with him retaining the core of the Labour vote and drawing in a large personal vote.
However, in my opinion, what was always going to loose Reform this election was the quality of their candidate.
The 35% who voted for Rob Kenyon were prepared to condone the various unsavoury comments made by him in social postings. Even Nigel Farage has dismissed them as laddish locker banter and thereby hangs the issue.
If the leader of Reform is willing accept a candidate with this sort of attitude and outlook into his party, exactly what sort of government are we in for?
Faced with such an option, is it any wonder that those who were undecided, might of otherwise consider Reform as a serious alternative to Andy Burnham?
After hearing the result this morning, I can’t help thinking that Burnham is now terrified and hasn’t a clue what to do. He’s asked the Cabinet to stay on! His ‘King of the North’ bubble will burst very quickly. An ‘Emperor has no clothes’ moment for sure. The ‘markets’ will not let him do anything. There is no money left. If has the nerve to call a GE he’s in for a nasty shock. Am so grateful to the whole of Reform for fighting our corner. Also, Burnham is not representative of the support in the May council elections etc. in the area as a whole.
Morning Matt and great to see you yesterday at Makerfield. Like many Reform voters woke up this morning to the news that not only has Andy Burnham won he has won by a nearly 10k majority and a swing to Labour from Reform of nearly 4%
This was a seat that was tailor made for a potential Reform victory notwithstanding the name recognition of Andy Burnham and us utilising a local candidate who had stood for the seat at the last election.
My questions
1. Nigel has been a key founder of success for Reform however he is a 'marmite' politician and the question needs to be raised has he taken Reform as far as he can and does it need a new leader. On the doorstep I found that a lot of the female vote locally distrusted Nigel and we also got push back on the candidates views.
2. 3 out of the last 4 by elections Reform has lost despite some high hopes and Sarah Pochins win was by the thinnest of margins. Is there a need to review the lessons learnt by the Head Office team as to why Reform is struggling to get over the line (It may not be just tactical and sectarian voting)
3. If Starmer resigns and there is a leadership competition and Burnham wins say in time for the Labour conference, will he call a snap election for the autumn knowing that at present neither Reform nor the Greens have their prospective parliamentary candidates in situ and that he may not have Starmers majority but still count on having more than enough for a working majority to being in for example PR to lock in a progressive electoral caucus (Greens and Lib Labs) and block the right who are unwilling to work with one another
Will there be a recording of the call for those of us who can't make 10am? Sorry not up to speed recently....