if Restore demonstrably cost Reform the seat then many of those 'patriots' that enabled it will wake up on Friday with a severe dose of buyers remorse
and not repeat it at the GE
It was inevitable that Rupert's robust rhetoric would attract the harder core of the right and therefore perhaps it is in the long term interests to illuminate the stark
implications of a Restore vote now rather than at the GE when it really counts
Thanks for this, Matt. Would those voting Restore really have given their vote to Reform if Lowe had pulled Restore out? My impression is that Restore exist only to hate Reform.
I agree if the Restores vote is the difference between Reform winning or loosing, I think we can assume Restore hates Reform more than Andy Burnham and Labour.
If Reform UK were to win Makerfield despite the final polls, it would be a serious setback for both Labour and the Conservatives.
It would point to a deeper shift in British politics, increase the pressure on Keir Starmer, and strengthen Reform’s claim to be the main force on the right.
The polling picture is more complicated than a headline Reform lead suggests. On a generic Westminster ballot, the party is 11 points ahead of Labour in Makerfield. But when Andy Burnham is named as Labour’s candidate, the race flips: Survation puts Labour ahead by 43% to 40%, while Opinium gives Labour a similar five-point lead.
Even so, Reform has reason to be confident. In the May 2026 local elections, it won all eight council wards in Makerfield and took roughly half the vote.
One risk for Reform is Restore Britain, which is taking votes on its right flank. Its candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, is polling between 5% and 8% — enough, as Nigel Farage has acknowledged, to matter in a close contest.
Reform’s own reported figures still point to a narrow Labour win, with Labour on about 45.5% and Reform on 41%.
If Labour lost a seat like Makerfield, even with Burnham as its candidate, the political fallout would be immediate. Starmer’s authority would take a heavy blow, and questions about his leadership would become much harder to contain.
It would also complicate Burnham’s position. A failed return to Westminster in such a high-profile contest would weaken, rather than strengthen, his claim as a future Labour leader.
For Reform, however, a win would be a major statement. Beating Labour while also seeing off a challenge from Restore Britain would show that Nigel Farage’s party can hold together the populist right.
After its by-election breakthrough in Runcorn and Helsby, winning Makerfield would suggest Reform can now compete not only in former Conservative seats, but deep inside Labour territory too.
We helped canvass at Gorton and Denton and also Makerfield. A lot of residents expressed canvassing fatigue - do you think this could be a problem and simply turn voters off voting for us?
Hello Matt,
If Reform plus Restore votes exceed Labour’s ,or come close.. what then for the right?
if Restore demonstrably cost Reform the seat then many of those 'patriots' that enabled it will wake up on Friday with a severe dose of buyers remorse
and not repeat it at the GE
It was inevitable that Rupert's robust rhetoric would attract the harder core of the right and therefore perhaps it is in the long term interests to illuminate the stark
implications of a Restore vote now rather than at the GE when it really counts
I can cope with Burnham for a while if it means getting rid of Starmer/Hermer/Khan but we need an election to get this country back on track
Thanks for this, Matt. Would those voting Restore really have given their vote to Reform if Lowe had pulled Restore out? My impression is that Restore exist only to hate Reform.
I agree if the Restores vote is the difference between Reform winning or loosing, I think we can assume Restore hates Reform more than Andy Burnham and Labour.
If Reform UK were to win Makerfield despite the final polls, it would be a serious setback for both Labour and the Conservatives.
It would point to a deeper shift in British politics, increase the pressure on Keir Starmer, and strengthen Reform’s claim to be the main force on the right.
The polling picture is more complicated than a headline Reform lead suggests. On a generic Westminster ballot, the party is 11 points ahead of Labour in Makerfield. But when Andy Burnham is named as Labour’s candidate, the race flips: Survation puts Labour ahead by 43% to 40%, while Opinium gives Labour a similar five-point lead.
Even so, Reform has reason to be confident. In the May 2026 local elections, it won all eight council wards in Makerfield and took roughly half the vote.
One risk for Reform is Restore Britain, which is taking votes on its right flank. Its candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, is polling between 5% and 8% — enough, as Nigel Farage has acknowledged, to matter in a close contest.
Reform’s own reported figures still point to a narrow Labour win, with Labour on about 45.5% and Reform on 41%.
If Labour lost a seat like Makerfield, even with Burnham as its candidate, the political fallout would be immediate. Starmer’s authority would take a heavy blow, and questions about his leadership would become much harder to contain.
It would also complicate Burnham’s position. A failed return to Westminster in such a high-profile contest would weaken, rather than strengthen, his claim as a future Labour leader.
For Reform, however, a win would be a major statement. Beating Labour while also seeing off a challenge from Restore Britain would show that Nigel Farage’s party can hold together the populist right.
After its by-election breakthrough in Runcorn and Helsby, winning Makerfield would suggest Reform can now compete not only in former Conservative seats, but deep inside Labour territory too.
It's all to play for, wouldn't you agree, Matt?
We helped canvass at Gorton and Denton and also Makerfield. A lot of residents expressed canvassing fatigue - do you think this could be a problem and simply turn voters off voting for us?
Will there be a recording of the call for those of us who can't make 10am? Sorry not up to speed recently....