A Prediction. The EARTHQUAKE that could be about to erupt in British politics.

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It’s a bank holiday here in Britain so I’ll keep this one sort.

Here’s a thought experiment to consider. Not a prediction - but a plausible chain of events that might be about to deliver a political earthquake in Britain.

A parliamentary by-election is currently underway in the northern seat of Makerfield, on the outskirts of Manchester. It’s an enormously important contest.

The Labour candidate is the current Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, who’s made no secret of his desire to replace Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and prime minister of the country.

His main opposition is Nigel Farage and Reform, who just finished in first place across countless Labour heartlands, including Makerfield, at the local elections.

But let’s say the latest opinion poll from Makerfield, shown above, is accurate. Let’s say that this does indeed happen.

While the race could easily change in the coming days and weeks, that poll suggests Labour’s Andy Burnham is currently on course to win the seat with a 3-point lead over Reform, who are in second place.

And here’s the key point: the 3-points currently separating Labour and Reform is dwarfed by the 9-points that is, combined, going to two other right-wing parties, namely the Tories and Restore, a breakaway party led by ex-Reform MP, Rupert Lowe.

Here’s what I think what would happen next under this scenario …

Andy Burnham narrowly wins the Makerfield by-election and in the aftermath proclaims that he is the only person who can unify the Labour Party and defeat Reform in a pro-Brexit, heavily white British seat in northern England.

He is the only person, he will say, who can save the Labour Party.

In the aftermath of victory, Labour MPs from different factions of the party rally around Andy Burnham and pile enormous pressure on an already deeply unpopular Keir Starmer to immediately resign.

Burnham’s leadership rivals and perhaps Starmer himself are offered top jobs in a Burnham-led administration to ease the rapid transition.

Within weeks, Andy Burnham is appointed leader of the Labour Party and prime minister, much like Gordon Brown was in 2007.

Given there is no democratic support for Prime Minister Andy Burnham, widespread calls for a general election emerge across the country.

But here’s the twist: Andy Burnham also wants an early, snap general election.

Why?

Because he looks at the political landscape.

In his eyes, he’s just defeated Reform in northern England, while Reform has a new problem with Restore which is not a big party but significant enough to cost Reform seats like Makerfield.

The Tories, having lost their deposit at both the Gorton and Denton and now Makerfield by-elections are clearly dying but also remain a problem for Reform in a few pockets of the country.

The Right, in short, is divided. It is visibly, clearly divided.

On the left, Burnham sits down with senior Greens and essentially buys them off with some kind of offer on electoral reform, perhaps proportional representation - an offer sweetened by Labour offering the Greens a clear run in a dozen-or-so seats.

Then Burnham looks at the economy.

While rising, the Iran-linked surge of inflation is yet to arrive. So too is mass unemployment and recession, which are on the way but still lie over the horizon.

The latest growth figures were not a complete catastrophe and compared to other nations Burnham says “we are doing better than others”.

More importantly, he wants his own mandate. He does not want to be locked in to the fiscal rules and policies imposed by Starmer and Reeves. He wants to be his own man.

And he certainly doesn’t want to wait for the major economic downturn that is coming - better to deal with that when he’s actually got his own majority and is safely ensconced in Number 10 for years.

Burnham’s also influenced by his experience of watching Gordon Brown bottle an early general election when he was appointed prime minister in 2007, just before a major global financial crisis erupted - a mistake that Burnham does not want to replicate in 2026, with a major debt crisis on the horizon.

All this pushes Burnham to do the unthinkable and roll the dice: calling an early, snap general election. He calls one within days of entering Downing Street, setting the stage for a general election roughly 5-7 weeks after taking office.

Labour does not like winter elections so he moves quickly to avoid one.

He hopes to secure his own mandate. Crush any opposition to his rule within the Labour Party. Capitalise on media excitement around a ‘new direction’. And, more than anything, exploit a divided Right.

He enters the general election with a united Labour Party, willing to do whatever it takes to keep the Greens and the Scottish National Party on side, and exploit a divided Right, winning enough votes to cobble together a coalition.

For yet another five years, until at least the year 2031, Britain is now in the grip of a hard-left coalition that’s committed to ongoing mass immigration, record taxation, spending and borrowing, that refuses to fix the borders, and continues to reform the electoral and political system so that the Right finds it much harder to win power.

I say all this not because I want this to happen. Clearly, I don’t.

I say it because I now think this is a very plausible pathway that should encourage everybody on the Right of British politics to focus their minds on what is really at stake at this by-election in Makerfield.

There is, of course, an alternative to all this.

Right-wing voters unify behind Reform, push Reform over the line in Makerfield, and continue to make life unbearable for Keir Starmer and the Labour Party.

They demonstrate clearly and unequivocally that the heartlands have had enough of Labour and the establishment more generally.

Reform then has much longer to prepare for the next general election. It can watch the Labour Party suffer from the deteriorating economic climate, can watch the Green party continue to implode under the weight of media scrutiny, and can continue to expand Reform’s coalition, moving from 30 per cent to 35-40 per cent in the polls.

When the next general election does eventually arrive, whether in 2029 or brought about earlier by a debt crisis, Nigel Farage is then able lead Reform into power with a commanding majority of its own and a mandate for radical change.

Britain leaves the European Convention on Human Rights, repeals the Human Rights Act, takes control of its laws and borders, slashes taxes, regulation, and Net Zero, puts small and medium-sized businesses on turbo-charge, and starts to steer the country back towards genuine sovereignty, control, and prosperity.

But that all depends on one thing.

The good people of Makerfield, especially those on the Right of British politics, realising what time it is and voting to stop the first chain of events from unfolding.

Because unless they do then Britain might not only be about to find itself confronted with a new Prime Minister but a much sooner-than-expected general election, too.

And that really would be a major political earthquake. So, put your seatbelts on readers because things are about to get very interesting indeed …

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