5 key trends from my book that will completely reshape Britain
The key trends that underpin my new book - Suicide of a Nation
Matt Goodwin’s newsletter goes to 94,000 subscribers from 183 countries. Inner Circle and Paid subscribers get access to all posts, the entire archive, events, comments, and help us spread our message. You can join us on YouTube, Insta, TikTok, X and Facebook. We will always tell you the truth.
My new book, Suicide of a Nation, has been getting a lot of attention. I’ll be discussing the book, live, with our paid and Inner Circle subscribers this week (details to follow).
But in the meantime, some people have been asking about the underlying trends behind the book, including my projections about how Britain’s population will change in the coming years and decades.
The book is anchored in detailed research some of our readers will remember - analysis that draws on the official census and other data from the Office for National Statistics. These data are then used to make projections about the population.
Seeing how rapidly this community of ours has grown, I thought it would be useful to share 5 key points from this research about how Britain -or more specifically England and Wales- will change over the next 74 years, in just one lifetime, between today and the year 2100. Imagine that a white British child was born today, for example. This is what they would witness in their lifetime …
1. White Brits become a minority in 2063
By the time a white British child that was born today turns only 37 years old, the white British will officially become a minority group in Britain.
This will happen as part of a wider trend that is already sweeping through the country and which will see the share of people who are white British fall from nearly three-quarters today to just one in every three people by the end of this century.
The crossover point - the point at which the white British assume minority status - will arrive in the year 2063, if not sooner. It is worth remembering that until the late 1990s the white British basically represented more than 95 per cent of the country.
Of course, this has already happened in a growing number of areas.
As I write more extensively about in the book, White Britons are already a minority in our three largest cities - London, Manchester and Birmingham - as well as places such as Leicester, Luton, Slough and Watford.
In the next few years, if it is not already true, they will also slide into minority status in places like Blackburn, Bradford, Cambridge, Coventry, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Nottingham, Oxford, Peterborough, Reading, Sandwell and Wolverhampton.
Then, slightly later, in places such as Hertsmere, Bedford, Bexley, Oldham, Preston, Pendle, Thurrock, Derby, Havering and Bromley.
And then, by 2063, the white British, the country’s historic majority, will officially be a minority in the country overall. It will be profound and unprecedented. And it will also almost certainly change our politics in profound ways, too.
2. This will happen much sooner among the under-40s
The transformation of Britain’s population will be much more noticeable among younger people, who are at the forefront of this demographic revolution.
By the time that white British child born today turns only 24 years old, in the year 2050, they will already be a minority among the under-40s.
By the year 2075, less than fifty years from now, white Britons will comprise only roughly one-third of all young people in the country; then, by the year 2100, roughly one-quarter.
As I write a lot more about in the book, we already see these changes in Britain’s schools and universities. Consider, for example, the school register.
Once, names such as Thomas, Jack, Oliver and Noah dominated the list. By 2023, Muhammad – in the top ten since 2016 – replaced Noah as the most popular boy’s name in the country. Another new entry, in 2024, was Yahya, which also happens to be the name of the man who oversaw the worst massacre of Jews since World War Two.
White British children are already a minority in one in four schools in the country, including almost all of London. In primary schools, for example, White British children already make up only 35 per cent of pupils in Nottingham, 25 per cent in Birmingham, 20 per cent in Leicester, 13 per cent in Luton, 10 per cent in Slough, 8 per cent in Tower Hamlets, and only 5 per cent in Newham.
3. The share of non-whites will rise from nearly 20 per cent today to nearly 60 per cent by the end of the century
At the same time as the white British slide into minority status, over the next 74 years the share of people who are non-white will surge from roughly 20 per cent today to nearly 60 per cent by the end of this century.
As I explain in a lot more detail in the book, if you look around the world then roughly 70 per cent of countries have a clear majority group, while 80 per cent of countries have a majority group that represents at least 40 per cent of their population.
By the end of the century, however, because of the demographic trends that have been unleashed in Britain, mainly since the late 1990s, we will have neither of these things. And that puts us in the same basket as nations such as Sierra Leone and Lebanon in having no clear majority group which anchors and symbolises the nation.
4. The foreign-born and their children will soon represent a large majority of the UK
Between today and the end of the century, the foreign-born and their immediate descendants will go from representing 19 per cent of the country to roughly 61 per cent.
At the same time, the share of people who are UK-born, who can trace their roots on these islands back over a much longer period of time, who have a stronger sense of ancestry, collective memory, and connection to these islands, will collapse from 81 per cent today to just 39 per cent by the year 2100.
In other words, by the end of the century, only 74 years from now, a large majority of people will only be able to trace their roots in Britain back one or two generations.
Politicians try to distract you from this reality, by repeating the same line: Britain, they say, has ‘always been a nation of immigrants’. But this is false.
Between the 1800s and 1921, the share of foreign-born never exceeded 2.5% and was usually closer to 1.5%. From 1951, the share of foreign-born people edged upwards, but remained below 8% until 2001.
What we are witnessing today, with close to 20 per cent foreign-born, is simply unprecedented. What that child born today will witness as they enter their seventies, with 60 per cent of the country foreign-born or the immediate descendants of the foreign-born, will simply be a place that neither we nor our ancestors would recognise.
5. Islam will become much larger and more powerful in the years ahead
Between today and the year 2100, the share of the country that is Muslim will rise from roughly 7 per cent today to over 19 per cent.
This means that by the end of the current century close to one in five of all people in the UK will be following Islam, which will also be higher among the young.
However, what I also model is what I happen to think is more likely - a ‘high Muslim migration scenario’ - where much of the inward migration into Britain from outside Europe and through illegal routes continues to comprise of Muslim migration.
If this happens, then over the next 74-years Muslims will rise to represent more than one in every four adults and roughly one in three young people.
Again, as I discuss in much more detail in the book, this will radically change our population, culture, politics, and way of life. The skirmishes that we are already witnessing with sectarianism, debates about free speech, schoolteachers in hiding, women’s rights, extremism, terrorism, and mass prayer in public places such as Trafalgar Square are, arguably, just the start.
As I said last week during a fiery television debate, if all this is happening when roughly 6 per cent of Britain is following Islam then what will be happening when 26 per cent of the country is following Islam?
Where is my book, I ordered it a week or so ago? We know the problems, you are without doubt preaching to the converted: what we need are suggestions for a solution.
Matt, thank you for highlighting these trends. It can be inferred from your framing you find the native British becoming a minority and the growth if Islam undesirable. Given you are now in Reform and seeking election, I assume Reform are aligned with your view. Could you confirm what you/the party propose is done about the situation? I haven’t yet read the book so you might well include policy remedies in the book, but as far as the party goes I can’t see anything that suggest Reform is seeking to prevent the native British population becoming a minority or the growth of Islam. Indeed, in that recent interview with Steven Edgington, Richard Tice said he wasn’t concerned about the White British becoming a minority. Could you enlighten your subscribers as to the exact position as there appears to be conflicting messages?