Last night, I watched President Emmanuel Macron try to explain why France has descended into absolute chaos.
Buildings destroyed. Shops ransacked. Police officers attacked. Historic landmarks - like Limoges city hall, which had stood for 150 years — burned to the ground. And more than 1,800 people arrested.
Personally, I found Macron deeply unconvincing. While holding the lowest approval rating of his entire presidency, with just 15% of the French people thinking favourably of him, he offered no thoughts on what lies behind the riots or any concrete solutions.
And then I found my mind wandering to another question: with a huge presidential election only six months away, who will benefit politically from the current chaos?
The only answer it seems to me is Marine Le Pen.
For a start, just look at the polls. Even before the current carnage, Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, had already emerged as the clear favourite.
In the first round of what is a two-round election, Le Pen was already forecast to finish well ahead of everybody else, attracting more than one in three voters. And at the second round? She’s currently forecast to defeat every other candidate.
If there’s a second round run-off between Le Pen and the far-left firebrand, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has openly embraced the riots, the polls suggest it will not be close at all. The latest, by polling company Elabe, puts Le Pen on 69% of the vote.
Le Pen was already in a strong position.
But now the violence, the chaos, and a profound sense of insecurity among the French people is handing her an enormous opportunity to consolidate it.
“We are experiencing a profound crisis of confidence and authority,” Le Pen said yesterday. France, she warned …