Why Kamala Harris would be a DISASTER
Here's why I think Trump would easily defeat the favourite to replace Biden
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Greetings from Washington where I came to give a talk on the 2024 UK election —a version of which you can watch here— and walked into the bombshell news that Joe Biden is stepping aside while Kamala Harris, his VP, is stepping up.
With endorsements from Biden and the Democrat establishment, alongside the fact the modern left would find it almost impossible to dump ‘the first woman of colour’ from the ticket, Harris does look set to become the Democrat presidential nominee.
But here’s the thing — Kamala Harris would be a total disaster.
Everybody in Washington, deep down, knows this. Everybody in the senior ranks of the Democrat party, deep down, knows this. Everybody pollster, I would hope, knows this. Even Team Biden, I suspect, know this.
If the 2024 presidential election is a race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris then Trump will win, every time, and most likely win easily.
Why do I think this?
Well, let me start, as I usually do, with the data. Kamala Harris, as I pointed out on X last night, is simply a very unpopular vice president. If you compare her ratings with those of other Vice President’s at the same point, she is league’s behind, on an average of MINUS 17. Somewhere in history there’s a story about a popular underdog rising to replace their unpopular master and saving the day but this is definitely not that story.
Harris’s approval rating, at just 39%, leaves much to be desired. She is basically where Joe Biden is —languishing— failing to impress a majority of Americans, most of whom also think the country is heading in the right direction and it’s time for change.
Meanwhile, in the very latest ‘Trump vs. Harris’ hypothetical polls, Trump leads Harris by 5-points, compared to a lead of only 2-points over Biden. While there is a little bit of evidence to suggest that Kamala Harris might do a little better than Biden among African Americans, which matters given rising numbers of them are switching to Trump, there is also evidence to suggest that, in a run-off with Harris, Trump does even better among white voters and also wavering Republicans, who might not like Trump but would certainly not flock to Kamala Harris.
Put it this way, if many of the same groups turned against Hillary Clinton eight years ago then why on earth would they run toward Kamala Harris in November, somebody who is even less well qualified for the top job? And I’m clearly not the only one who is deeply sceptical about the chances of Harris defeating Trump. Only this week, just 15% of Americans thought she would be more likely than Biden to beat Trump.
Then comes the fact that, in 2020, when Harris did put herself in front of voters, in the 2020 Democrat primary, her campaign promptly fell apart. She quickly collapsed into single digits. She did not even make it past Iowa. This is not a good sign for somebody who now has to go to the entire country and win back crunch battleground states where Trump is leading in the polls and which, to be blunt, have lots of white working-class voters who now face the choice of Trump and J.D. Vance (who grew up in one of these states and understands them) or … Harris.
Insiders say this highlights another problem. Kamala Harris is just not a very good campaigner or natural communicator. Ever since becoming VP, Washington insiders have revealed how she’s needed a lot of work and media training. She can appear awkward on the campaign trail, is prone to gaffes, has a cackling laugh which goes viral on an almost daily basis, and has clearly been held at a distance by Biden. I’m not saying all this to be mean; I’m just saying she is a visibly flawed candidate who would provide more than enough material for Team Trump (which they’re already using).
In fact, I’d go even further by stating the obvious. Kamala Harris, in reality, is only Vice President of the United States because she happens to tick the relevant identity boxes that according to the modern left need to be ticked. Woman? Tick. African American? Tick. She has basically benefitted from a system that is now hard-wired to promote certain identity groups over others, based on little more than these boxes.
And as Ayaan Hirsi Ali points out, while this is celebrated by the left it actually leaves Harris deeply vulnerable on the campaign trail, not just …
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