Matt Goodwin

Matt Goodwin

Trump is right - Europe is Facing "Civilisational Erasure". Reflections on a new policy document

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Matt Goodwin
Dec 08, 2025

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America has just released its latest National Security Strategy. And, put simply, it is essential reading for everybody who is interested in the future of the West.

It has already sparked an intense debate among policy makers and politicians.

Why? Because the Americans had the courage to say out loud what millions of people in Europe can sense but few dare to talk openly about.

Europe, the Americans claim, does not just face economic stagnation and declining living standards: it is sliding into “civilisational erasure”.

The very foundations of European civilisation —free speech, defined borders, a unique culture and identity—are all crumbling.

Put simply: if present trends continue —including trends I have already charted in this newsletter—then European nations will become “majority non-European” within only a few decades.

Birth rates are collapsing. Legal immigration is soaring. Borders are disintegrating. National cultures are being eroded not only by immigration but globalisation and radical progressivism. And a new ruling class —a new elite— has become dangerously disconnected from the people they claim to govern.

Critics of President Trump will —of course—dismiss all this as hyperbole.

They will say it is sensationalist. Irresponsible, even. But for reasons I will come onto, we should take this warning from America very seriously indeed.

But first, what does the document say, exactly?

The policy of mass immigration, it states, has “strained domestic resources, increased violence and other crime, weakened social cohesion, distorted labour markets, and undermined national security.”

The White House points to “cratering birth-rates,” the “loss of national identities and self-confidence,” and projects that Europe —as we currently know it—could be unrecognisable as early as twenty years from now.

Yes, Europe is declining economically. It has pursued disastrous policies with regard to taxation, welfare, energy, protectionism, migration, and more.

But what the Americans are saying is far more profound …

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