State of the Race. Are the Polls on the Move?

With 36 days to go, what's happening beneath the surface?

Matt Goodwin’s Substack goes to more than 35,000 subscribers across 151 countries. Become a paid supporter to access everything —the full archive, unique posts, leave comments, join the debate, get discounts, advance notice about events, and the knowledge you’re supporting independent, contrarian writers who are making a real difference.

For Rishi Sunak to cause one of the biggest upsets in election history one of two things need to happen. First, he has to achieve a swing back to the incumbent party on a scale that no party has ever achieved in history. And/or second, he has to hope and pray that the opinion polls his team will be briefing him about each morning are wrong. To what extent, if at all, are we seeing any evidence of this one week on from when Rishi Sunak called the 2024 election? And, furthermore, to what extent, if at all, are other assumptions that surround the campaign turning out to be correct. Are the Conservatives closing the gap? Are ‘undecided Tories’ coming home? Is the Reform party being squeezed? Is the reality of a Labour government starting to make people nervous? Let’s take a look.