State of the Race: 4 days to go, toward the FINAL polls, into the home straight

Matt's latest note for paying subscribers ahead of a crunch week

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Stefan Rousseau/POOL/Peter Nicholls/Getty Images

Evening All. Only four days to go until the UK election. That came around quickly! I’m currently sat at my desk, watching the results of the first-round of the legislative elections roll in and, as we predicted, once again, it’s a good night for Marine Le Pen and her National Rally, who polled 34%. As I just pointed out on X, this is their best ever result and is consistent with what the polling suggested.

It’s also a reminder of why national populism —for reasons I’ve been explaining since we launched (see here, here, here, and here)— is not going anywhere anytime soon. National populists are becoming embedded in Western democracies, helped by the ongoing failure (or refusal?) of Western elites to actually address the reasons people are voting for the likes of Le Pen.

Mass immigration, radical Islam, weak borders, woke ideology, a breakdown of social order, and a ruling class that consistently denies ordinary people the respect and recognition they deserve and need. Anyway, we’ll be writing on France a bit more in the coming days so back to the UK …

Just so you’re ready for the week ahead with all the key info from the polls here’s what you need to know as we now move into the final four days —the final numbers, latest projections, what’s happening to party support beneath the surface, how Britain’s ethnic minorities plan to vote, and other numbers of note.

And p.s. Don’t forget our ‘Town Hall’ meeting for paying subscribers this Wednesday evening, a chance for us to gather on Zoom, ask me anything, and reflect on the election to follow on Thursday. I’ll be sending the link out for that to our paying subscribers this Tuesday. Hope to see you there!