State of the Race: 18 days to go, lowest EVER vote for Tories, & how many seats for Farage(?)

A deep dive into the latest data on the UK 2024 general election

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With only 18 days to go, we take our paid subscribers on a whistle-stop tour of the latest data, forecasts, polling and projections on the 2024 UK election. It’s certainly been a busy week with Reform replacing the Tories in one poll, support for the Tories sinking to new lows, the big parties releasing manifestoes, and Nigel Farage hinting once again at forcing through a wider realignment of the right. But what is changing beneath the surface? Here’s what you really need to know, including some fascinating detail on the impact Reform is going to have on July 4 and beyond …