Below is my speech, at the Oxford Union, Thursday June 11th. The debate was on the motion: This House Believes That Reform is Fit to Govern.

Madam President. Ladies and Gentlemen.

The motion before us tonight is not really about Reform UK, or Nigel Farage.

It is about Britain.

Because before we can debate whether Reform is fit to govern, we first need to ask a more uncomfortable question.

What exactly has the current governing class been doing for the last thirty years?

Time and time again, we are told that Reform cannot possibly govern Britain because it does not have enough experience.

But if experience alone makes a party fit to govern, then Britain would not be in the dire state that it is in today.

The people who have governed Britain for the last thirty years have been extraordinarily experienced.

They went to the best universities, including this one. Seven of the last ten prime ministers studied at Oxford. They probably sat where you sit today. Many then spent years in Parliament, holding ministerial office, occupying major ministerial positions.

And yet what have they given us, exactly?

Zero growth. Dire productivity. The highest taxes in peacetime. The highest industrial electricity prices in the Western world. Soaring youth unemployment.

A looming debt crisis. Collapsing public services. Not enough prisons. Not enough houses. Two-tier policing. Broken borders. Sectarianism. Rampant shoplifting and sexual violence. Unchecked Islamism. Soaring anti-semitism. Collapsing public trust in politics. And a palpable, growing sense among millions of ordinary people that their country - the country their ancestors built, the country they love - no longer works for them.

If this is what experience looks like, if this is what being “fit to govern” looks like, then I would suggest to you that perhaps experience is overrated.

The question is not whether Reform has enough people with the right degrees, from the right universities, who cling to the same broken Groupthink in Westminster.

The question is whether Reform understands something that the entire establishment seems to have forgotten.

Namely, what is government for?

Reform is fit to govern because it is the only movement that is built around two core principles that once formed the foundation of democratic government but which have now largely disappeared from British politics.

The first is national preference.

The idea, stretching back centuries, that the first duty of government is to prioritise its own people.

Not international organisations. Not supranational, undemocratic institutions. Not unelected, unaccountable quangos, courts, lawyers, and public bodies. Not foreign nationals. Not Davos, the World Economic Forum, or global corporations.

Its own citizens.

The decent majority of hardworking, tax-paying, law-abiding, patriotic people who contribute to the country, raise children in the country, whose ancestors built this country, and who look at this country not as a hotel but home.

It is this principle of national preference that not only ensures the social contract remains in place - that people remain willing to provide welfare for others - but is reflected in the very serious programme for government that Reform has put forward.

An immediate freeze on all non-essential immigration. Leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and repealing Tony Blair’s Human Rights Act so that the people of this country can actually control their own borders and laws.

Deporting millions of illegal migrants and foreign criminals who not only make the lives of our people a misery and are far more likely to commit crime — especially sexual crimes — but are costing our people £15 billion in accommodation costs alone.

Introducing tighter settlement rules. Ending £10 billion in annual welfare payments for foreign nationals. Slashing foreign aid until we have fixed Britain first.

How is it right, I ask you, that we currently treat our own people in NHS car parks and corridors while sending some £13 billion overseas — to support cycling lines in Mexico, eco-farms in Nepal, or buying condoms for Pakistan?

Reform will also remove all social housing subsidies for people who are not British so that our own people are no longer forced to suffer the indignity of having to read about how the First Lady of Sierra Leone, while living in a presidential mansion in Freetown, has a council flat in London as 1.3 million people in Britain, including thousands of our military veterans, sit on the social housing register, or sleep on our streets. This is completely unacceptable.

And protect our home by abolishing indefinite leave to Remain that was given, for example, to that monster from Sudan in Belfast, while ensuring that anybody who does come to Britain in the future must speak our English language to a very high standard, make a net contribution to the economy, and has a clean criminal record.

This is not a lot to ask for - it is the foundation of a functioning, healthy nation-state. It is how a nation survives.

If we do not protect our citizens — socially, economically, demographically — then more and more of them will simply leave, as roughly a quarter of a million are now doing each year —with half of those leaving Britain aged between 16 and 34 years of age. We are literally replacing our best and brightest with goat-herders from Iraq.

National preference is also why Reform will unequivocally and unashamedly prioritise British workers over imported cheap labour. If a nation is reduced to merely helping global corporations keep their labour costs low and profits high then that nation will not survive.

There is more to life, there is more to a nation, than chasing GDP.

Neither the Tories nor Labour believe in workers. Boris Johnson and the Tories completely betrayed them through the Boriswave and even removed the requirement to advertise jobs in Britain before advertising them overseas.

Labour, meanwhile, the supposed party of labour, smashed the working-class apart by choosing to import masses of cheap labour from overseas to serve global corporations, and then smashed them all over again through fanatical Net Zero policies.

What the political establishment in this country has never understood is that you can have mass uncontrolled immigration. Or you have well-paid British workers who are treated with respect and dignity.

You cannot have both.

Don’t look at these policies in isolation. And don’t call them the politics of protest and grievance. Because they are not.

They all lie downstream of that fundamental principle Westminster seems to have forgotten. National preference - putting our own people first.

But this principle on its own is not enough. What Reform UK also recognises — and again what no other party seems to recognise at all — is that proper democracy also requires popular sovereignty.

The overriding believe that power ultimately belongs not with elites but the people, and that it is the people who are the true source of authority and legitimacy.

Not quangos. Not regulators. Not activist judges. Not woke bureaucrats. Not distant, unelected ‘experts’ who have only given us all the managed decline we see today.

The people.

Yet, increasingly, millions of ordinary people can sense that Britain like other Western nations now operates according to the very opposite principle.

They feel they have no influence over the decisions that affect their lives.

Governments change but the direction of travel in this country never does.

They ask for things like lower immigration but then immigration explodes.

They ask for things like stronger borders yet our borders remain wide open.

They ask for tough action on crime and yet shoplifting, phone theft, burglaries, sexual violence all spiral.

They ask why their fellow citizens are being murdered by illegal migrants, beheaded in the street, or their children are being raped on an industrial scale by predatory grooming gangs, and they are told to “stop being divisive”.

And so they ask themselves a simple but fundamental question: who is actually in charge here? Who is this system actually representing and respecting? Because one thing is clear: it is not the people.

This is why Reform has outlined serious policies to reassert popular sovereignty, restore democratic accountability, and put power back in the hands of the people.

We will slash unelected quangos. We will dramatically reduce the size of the Civil Service — The Blob — making it far more accountable to democratically-elected politicians and hence, voters.

We will allow ministers to sack woke civil servants who oppose democratically-elected governments, and reassert the executive to take bold, decisive action on behalf of the people they were elected to represent.

We will reassert our national democracy. We will protect the free speech of our people — including their right to protest, dissent, and ask difficult questions about Islam, the grooming gangs, or immigration.

We will end the use of non-crime hate incidents, unnecessary hate laws, censorship, and speech codes, all of which are designed to undermine rather than strengthen our people’s freedom.

We will root out all Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion policies and programmes that are now code words for anti-white racism. The era of calling for equality while discriminating against whites will end.

And we will root out definitions of ‘anti-Muslim hostility’ that are used to try and control what we can say about the growth, role, and compatibility of Islam in Britain.

The history of England, it was once said, is the history of liberty, and yet Reform is now the only party in Westminster that will ensure that tradition continues.

You may agree or disagree with particular policies I’ve mentioned.

But what cannot be denied is that contrary to what you might have heard from the increasingly irrelevant legacy media, there is a coherent philosophy underneath them.

National preference. Popular sovereignty. Putting the British people first. Returning power to citizens.

And ensuring that every Reform policy and government remains firmly anchored in these two core, guiding principles.

Because ultimately, ladies and gentlemen, every political system must answer two fundamental questions. Who comes first? And who is in charge?

In Britain, we used to be able to answer those questions clearly. But today, our politicians have lost their way.

They have become drunk on ‘suicidal empathy’, becoming so obsessed with showing empathy to people who do not come from our country that they are now destroying our country from within.

This is why so many British people feel so utterly exasperated. This is why public trust has collapsed. And this is why Reform is number one in the polls. This is why Reform just won nationwide local elections for the second year in a row. And this is why Reform is on its way into government.

Because what our supporters can see is that we will always put our own people first. And we will always strive to return power to them. These will be the foundations of the next Reform government — national preference and popular sovereignty.

If being “fit to govern” means understanding who government is for and where power comes from, then I would suggest to you, that Reform UK is not merely fit to govern but is now the only party that still understands what and who government is for, and should be for.

Thank you.

As always, I’d welcome your comments. I’m looking forward to joining our Paid subscribers at our weekly Live discussion at 2pm today on the Substack App.

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If you want to see the future of a nation then look at what’s happening in its schools.

A few days ago, the UK government quietly released figures on the characteristics of school pupils in England, from the 2025-2026 year.

While you’re unlikely to hear the figures discussed on BBC Verify, the results, released by the Department for Education, are striking.

They not only paint a detailed picture of what is now unfolding at speed in England’s state nurseries, primary schools, and secondary schools but reveal how the country, in the years ahead, will be radically transformed, too. Because what is visible in our schools today will inevitably reshape the nation, tomorrow.

For the first time in history, the share of school pupils across all types of school who are white British has fallen below 60 per cent, while the share from minority ethnic backgrounds has surged to a record high, of nearly 39 per cent.

Consider the sheer pace of change that’s now sweeping through England’s schools.

A decade ago, during the 2015-2016 school year, 70 per cent of all school pupils were white British. Today, only ten years later, it’s already fallen to 59.7 per cent.

Over the last ten years, in state-funded secondary schools, the share of pupils who are white British has fallen from 71 to 59 per cent. In primary schools, it’s down from 68 to just below 60 per cent.

And in state nurseries, it’s down from 69 per cent in the 2016-17 year (earlier data was not available) to just 47 per cent today, meaning that in England’s nurseries white British children are already a minority.

In particular areas of England, the very latest figures are even more astonishing.

In Blackburn …

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I do not usually write several pieces on the same story. But I genuinely believe that the murder of Henry Nowak represents a watershed moment in modern Britain.

Already, among the British people, the horrific murder and treatment of Henry has sparked a widespread and intensifying debate in the country.

Many people are now asking entirely legitimate questions.

Why are police officers in this country taught to react differently to crimes depending on whether they involve ethnic minorities or people from the white majority?

What happened to people being treated equally before the law, irrespective of their racial, ethnic, or religious background?

And why are perverse ideologies from America that promote anti-British, anti-Western, and anti-white ideas now circulating widely among not only the police but schools, universities, the health service, media, government, and more?

But while millions of Brits are asking these important and valid questions, what we also learned this week is that the ruling class clearly does not want to have this debate.

Rather than engage seriously with the concerns and grievances that are being voiced out there, by the silent majority, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and countless Members of Parliament instead chose to retreat into their comfort zone by blaming the one person who was forcing these questions onto the agenda: Nigel Farage.

When Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, stood up during Prime Minister’s Questions this week to voice his entirely justifiable concerns about “two-tier policing”, he was widely jeered, criticised, and attacked in the House of Commons.

Keir Starmer, Tory party leader Kemi Badenoch, and leader of Restore, Rupert Lowe, all accused Farage of exploiting the tragedy and creating division.

Countless MPs hit the media to say Nigel Farage is being irresponsible. To say he is disrespecting the Nowak family. To criticise him for “politicising” the issue.

As commentator Konstantin Kisin quipped, if you listened to the British media this week you’d think Henry Nowak was killed by Nigel Farage’s comments.

But millions of ordinary people will have seen something else. They will have spent much of this week witnessing blatant, overwhelming, unavoidable hypocrisy.

Only six years ago, when George Floyd was killed in Minneapolis, in 2020, almost every single one of these same politicians adopted a radically different tone.

Keir Starmer declared that George Floyd’s death, in America, “should be the catalyst for change” here in Britain. London Mayor Sadiq Khan said Floyd’s death had “rightly ignited fury and anguish” around the world.

And Labour’s Shabana Mahmood, who castigated Farage in the House this week, six years ago told her constituents: “I share their anger at this unspeakable outrage.”

Notice the language. “Rightly”. “Fury.” “Anger.” “Share”. “A catalyst for change.”

Six years ago, the ruling class in Westminster told Britain and the world that public outrage over racism and policing should not only be voiced and heard but amplified, respected and acted upon by every institution in British society.

That’s what happened.

We all lived through it. We all saw it. We all felt it. And we all watched the political, media, and cultural class bend over backwards to impose major changes.

But today, in sharp contrast, the reaction to an eerily similar case - the death of a young man amidst police incompetence and while muttering the exact same words (“I can’t breathe”) - could hardly be more different.

This time, the very same people who immediately ‘took the knee’ for a revolutionary, anti-Western, anti-democratic, and anti-white organisation now tell us “it is very important not to politicise a personal tragedy” or “cause division”.

This time, the very same people who used the death of a career criminal in America to justify a full-blown cultural revolution in the West tell us “we must restrain ourselves so as to respect the wishes of the Nowak family” (although, interestingly, when the mother of Rhiannon Whyte, who was stabbed to death by an illegal migrant, called for an end to illegal migration Starmer did not want respect the wishes of that family).

This time, the very same MPs who supported or even joined Black Lives Matter protests and riots on the streets of our capital city while openly breaking Covid laws publicly condemn any similar disturbances and riots relating to Henry Nowak.

And this time, the political class and their allies in the media have made it crystal clear that the only response they consider proper and socially acceptable is the very opposite to what followed Black Lives Matter only six years ago.

Righteous anger? Not allowed. Protesting on the streets? Not this time. Expressing rage? You should be ashamed of yourself. Wanting the tragedy to become a “catalyst for change” to two-tier policing? I’m afraid now you’ll find that the very same people who only six years ago tried to have us believe that every single institution in British society was “institutionally racist” now say “two-tier policing” could not possibly exist.

In fact, this week the British people were put in the utterly absurd position of being told by Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his deputy David Lammy that “two-tier policing does not exist” while on the very same day the country’s most senior police chiefs admitted in The Times newspaper they were “reviewing controversial guidance advising officers to treat ethnic minorities differently”.

In other words, the very same politicians who tried to introduce more lenient prison sentences for criminals from minority backgrounds now want you to believe that two-tier justice “does not exist”. Clearly, there are no limits to the extent to which the political class will try and gaslight the British people.

Even Starmer’s cynical use of the Nowak family is outrageous.

If you go back and actually listen to what Henry’s father, Mark Nowak, said, he was very careful to point to Henry’s “inhumane” and “degrading” treatment by the police and contrast it with the “decency” with which they treated his murderer, Vikrum Digwa. He was very clearly pointing to two-tier policing while also underlining his determination to use this appalling tragedy to “make change for the better”.

The entirely legitimate question that must now be asked and debated across the country is how to make that change for the better. I have made some suggestions, as have many others, including Nigel Farage and Reform UK. But Keir Starmer, Labour, and much of the political class clearly do not want us to have this debate at all.

Why? Because what we are witnessing is exactly the same playbook the political class used after Brexit, the Manchester Evening News Arena bombing, the murder of Sir David Amess, the grooming gangs, and the Southport atrocity.

Rather than engage seriously with the underlying issue, with the actual issue, the political class now only tries to police the reaction to these events. It has become hopelessly and profoundly out-of-touch with the people it claims to serve.

Brexit? Don’t lower immigration, restore sovereignty, and help left behind people. Blame Nigel Farage, Cambridge Analytica, and deride voters as gammons and racists.

The Manchester bombing? Don’t address Islamism and stop importing people who hate us. Blame “division” and sing songs about not looking back in anger.

Sir David Amess? Definitely. Do. Not. Mention. Islamism. Blame social media and distract everybody with a debate about “online safety”.

The grooming gangs? Don’t hold an immediate statutory inquiry into the worst scandal in British history before crushing every grooming gang in the country.

Blame Tommy Robinson, Nigel Farage, and Elon Musk for “whipping up division” while hoping that nobody notices there is still no inquiry and the gangs remain rife.

Southport? Don’t fix the borders, end mass immigration and stop importing people from radically different cultures who glorify violence. Once again, blame Nigel Farage and ‘far-right thugs’ while clamping down on free speech.

Henry Nowak? Don’t acknowledge and address the blatant two-tier policing that led officers to prioritise allegations of racial abuse over doing their job properly. Instead, blame Nigel Farage once again and warn everybody else not to “cause division”.

Time and time again, we see the same pattern. A political class that has become so weak, so cowardly, and so desperate to distract people from scrutinising its own legacy that it is now more determined to try and turn this into a debate about Nigel Farage or Elon Musk rather than acknowledge and deal with the underlying issue.

What we are witnessing is a political class, a regime, that is rapidly losing control of the narrative and is desperately trying to regain it - if not impose it.

But this strategy, as we can see from the aftermath of Southport to events this week, is simply no longer working because more and more people can see, with their own eyes, what is happening to the country.

What millions of people can see, clearly, is that the debate over Henry Nowak is not simply a debate over Nigel Farage. It is about how some groups are being treated more favourably than others. It is about how only some grievances are considered legitimate while others are caricatured, mocked and dismissed. And it is about how the same standards and level of respect are no longer shown to different groups.

The longer Keir Starmer and the political class refuse to engage seriously and honestly with these concerns about what is actually happening to Britain, the more they and the wider system will lose people’s trust and confidence.

This is what has been building up slowly but relentlessly in the system — through the debates over Brexit, the grooming gangs, the Islamist bombings, Southport, mass immigration, broken borders, Muslim sectarianism and more — a growing awareness among millions of ordinary people out there in the country that the system is simply no longer interested in dealing with the things that are actually tearing Britain apart.

Worse, it is now only interested in managing the reaction to these things through a draconian clampdown on free speech, free expression, and free debate.

This is a very dangerous place for any society to be. The more people withdraw their trust and confidence, the weaker the system will become before, inevitably, at some point in the not-too-distant future, collapsing altogether.

This, more than anything else, is why the murder of Henry Nowak may prove to be a watershed moment in British politics. Because it has pulled back the curtain to reveal just how out-of-touch and self-serving the political regime has become.

The only question is whether the regime will now turn back and address the underlying issues that are tearing our country apart before it really is too late.

As always, I’d welcome your comments. I’m looking forward to joining our Paid subscribers at our weekly Live discussion at 2pm today on the Substack App.

I am sure that by now many of you will have seen the horrifying footage of Henry Nowak’s death. It is the most troubling footage I have seen. I will not post it here.

I made the mistake of watching it before bed and then lay awake for hours, feeling the ‘cold rage’ that Nigel Farage would talk about a few hours later.

I simply cannot imagine what Henry’s family have gone through, are going through, and have yet to go through. I only hope they get the justice they deserve.

A national debate is now starting to emerge.

I’ve already written about the shocking hypocrisy that’s been on display. About how the same political class that fell over itself only six years ago to express sympathy for a man who died in America is conspicuously silent about a man who died in remarkably similar circumstances — surrounded by police incompetence and while uttering the exact same words: “I can’t breathe”.

What I want to write about today something different. It is the more important question that now hangs over this debate and the wider country: what should we do?

The first thing we should do is respect Henry’s father, Mark Novak, by ensuring that a full, transparent, independent inquiry into the case he has called for is delivered.

We need to understand how police officers can arrive at a murder scene, be told by the victim he’s been stabbed, and for one officer to respond: “I don’t think you have, mate”.

The second thing we should do is deport the murderer’s mother, an Indian national, and any other members of the family who tried to help the murderer conceal his murder weapon, or obstruct justice.

We have to draw a line in the sand: foreign nationals who commit crime, including facilitating the murder of our own people, must be removed from the country.

The third thing we should do is push for a review of the sentence that was given to Henry’s murderer, Vikrum Digwa, as it is lower than the recommended minimum for a sustained aggressive murderous assault.

And the fourth thing we should do is end the religious exemption to carry deadly weapons. Even if such a weapon was not, in the end, used to murder Henry Nowak I suspect that millions of British people will find it utterly absurd that some minority groups can carry deadly weapons while others, alongside the majority, cannot.

How have we ended up living in a country where the members of one minority ethnic group can legally carry a deadly weapon while it is illegal for women to carry pepper spray to help defend themselves?

But we must go much further than this.

Because, as I said on BBC Politics Live, yesterday, the truth is that Henry’s murder lies downstream of a much deeper and perverse ideology that has entrenched anti-white racism into the very fabric of our institutions.

For thirty years now, a succession of Tory and Labour governments have imposed a sprawling regime of political correctness, hate speech laws, speech codes, and ‘diversity, equality and inclusion’ (DEI) policies, much of which is code for discriminating against white people.

The end result, as a whistleblower from Hampshire police, the same authority that responded to Henry Nowak, made clear to journalist Alison Pearson this week, is that the police are now told to respond to different ethnic groups in different ways, while police officers themselves are promoted and evaluated not on the basis of their performance but, crudely, on the basis of their race and ethnicity.

Consider how absurd this debate has become.

Only yesterday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer once again told the British people and the country “there is no such thing as two-tier policing”.

Yet, this morning, policy chiefs openly say they will review guidance, published by the National Police Chiefs’ Council, that specifically advises police officers to treat ethnic minorities differently.

As journalist David Shipley points out, you can see this two-tier policing in Hampshire and Isle of Wight Constabulary, the very police force responsible for Henry’s arrest.

Recently, like every other police force across the land, Hampshire and Isle of Wight Constabulary produced a ‘Race Action Plan’, with all the usual buzz words that symbolise this new ideology.

References to George Floyd. The emphasis on preventing ‘harm caused to our ethnic minority communities’ rather than treating all people equally. The claim that the police force is ‘anti-racist’ in ‘all it does’.

And the focus on ‘understanding the impact, trauma, and history of policing ethnic minority communities’, and ‘improving the outcomes and support for ethnic minority victims of crime’.

This is not treating all people equally before the law. This is not a politically neutral police force. And this is not colour-blind anti-racism, of the sort that motivated an earlier generation of civil rights activists, such as Martin Luther King.

This is blatantly biased, politically compromised, two-tier policing that has clearly decided to prioritise minorities over the majority. It is pro-minority, anti-majority.

And this is precisely how you end up, downstream of this ideology, with police officers concluding that the most important thing of all is not trying to help save somebody’s life but handcuffing somebody (wrongly) accused of racial abuse.

This ideology — which has been imposed not only on police but our schools, universities, National Health Service, the BBC, and more — is now having devastating effects.

As I’ve pointed out, it’s hideous consequences are visible not just in the shocking murder of Henry Nowak but the grooming gang scandal, the Southport atrocity, the Nottingham stabbings, and the Manchester Evening News Arena bombing.

All these shocking incidents could either have been stopped completely, or had their damage minimised, were it not for public officials feeling far more concerned about potentially being accused of “racism” than actually doing their job.

The security guard in Manchester. The social workers, police officers, and councillors across Labour-run councils across northern England. The mental health worker in the case of Axel Rudakubana. The medical professional in Nottingham. And now the police officers who responded to Henry Nowak.

All had been influenced by endless ‘race action plans’, mandatory ‘anti-racism training’, DEI programmes, and a national culture that now routinely prioritises the anti-racism taboo above everything else.

The end result is what we are now living in today: a regime, a culture, a country, that promotes and prioritises ethnic minorities while framing white people, white majorities, and Western nations as inherently “racist” or “oppressive”.

A country where every single Member of Parliament knows the names Stephen Lawrence and George Floyd but where, I would bet, very few if any MPs could tell us what happened to Richard Everitt, Kriss Donald, or Thomas Roberts.

And a regime that now considers being “anti-racist” as the single, most important metric in society – no matter whether a young man is dying, no matter whether young, white, non-Muslim working-class girls are being sexually trafficked, and no matter whether a man such as Axel Rudakubana is planning mass murder.

For those of us who want to acknowledge this difficult truth, the path ahead is clear.

We need to root out the ‘Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion’ agenda from our taxpayer-funded institutions. We need to overturn the blatant politicisation of not only the police but our schools, universities, health service, and government institutions, all of which define themselves as ‘anti-racist’ organisations, meaning they are politically compromised and openly biased against the majority in favour of minorities.

And we need to get back to being a country that treats everybody equally and fairly before the law, irrespective of their race and ethnicity.

Because if we don’t, then we will only see more chaos and carnage in the years and decades ahead, of the sort we saw on the streets of Southampton last night.

Increasingly, unless we change course, white people will reach the conclusion they are second-class citizens in their own nations, and under their own taxpayer-funded public institutions, and, inevitably I fear, this groundswell of resentment, much of it legitimate, will push us down a much darker path.

Meanwhile, the inescapable reality of two-tier justice will continue to erode public trust and confidence in not only policing and the criminal justice system but the entire system of government.

Nobody wants to see this happen.

Nobody wants to see our country and civilisation descend like this.

And nobody wants to see more boys like Henry Nowak dying on our streets while the very people who are paid by taxpayers to protect and help them display more concern about allegations of “racism” than doing their god damn job.

As always, I’d welcome your comments.

Many people have asked me where I stand on the growing dispute between Reform UK and Rupert Lowe’s new party, Restore.

Until now, I’ve largely stayed out of it.

But with Restore attracting media attention, support from the likes of Elon Musk, and even standing against Reform at elections, including at the forthcoming by-election in the Labour-held seat of Makerfield where Restore risks handing the seat to the same Labour Party that is destroying Britain, as you can see in the poll above, I think it’s important to be open and honest. So, I’ll be very honest …

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Europe is rapidly transitioning from a civilisation shaped by natural change and continuity to one that will be defined by immigration-driven replacement.

That’s the central message from several new bombshell studies of how Europe’s population is being radically transformed.

Until now, in this newsletter, I’ve mainly written about how the population of the UK is being completely overhauled, despite no democratic consent from the people.

But once you step back and look at the much bigger story that’s unfolding across Europe then you’ll see a picture that’s just as astonishing.

According to new figures from Eurostat, the people of Europe are currently experiencing the most profound demographic shift in their history.

Between 2010 and today, in only sixteen years, the share of foreign-born residents in Europe rocketed from 40 million to more than 64 million.

In other words, Europe’s ruling class added 24 million foreign-born residents in only sixteen years — with nearly three-quarters coming from radically different cultures and nations outside of Europe.

The changes in specific nations are striking. Between 2015 and 2024, Germany’s immigrant population exploded from 11 million to more than 17 million. In Spain, it surged from 5.9 million to close to 10 million.

As in the UK, immigration is now the only reason Europe’s population is growing. Why? Because Europe’s people are no longer reproducing themselves naturally.

Europe has now recorded more deaths than births every single year since 2012 – with Latvia, Bulgaria, and Lithuania suffering the sharpest falls.

Last year, in just one year, Europe’s natural population collapsed by 1.3 million people, while net immigration added 2.3 million.

And these trends will only accelerate unless Europe finds a way of encouraging its native population to have more children, which currently looks unlikely.

The average fertility rate across Europe has now slumped to only 1.34 children per woman, sharply down from 1.46 in 2004 and well below the ‘replacement rate’ of 2.1 -- at which a population is considered stable.

Europe’s fertility rate today is now broadly the same as the rate in the UK, where it’s just slumped to 1.39, and where 40 per cent of all children now have one or two foreign-born parents.

In specific nations; Europe’s demographic collapse is nothing short of astonishing.

The fertility rate in Malta is 1.06. In Spain, it is 1.10. In Poland, 1.14. In Italy, 1.18. In Ireland and Sweden, it is 1.4.

These nations will simply not survive in any recognisable form over the longer-term unless they find a way of boosting fertility rates among their native populations.

Even France, once seen as a demographic success story, now has a fertility rate of 1.56. For the first time since World War Two, it just recorded more deaths than births. The only reason France grew last year is because net migration added 176,000 people.

Many other striking trends reveal the sheer speed and scale at which Europe is now being radically transformed.

Last year, according to Eurostat, the number of people who live in Europe but were born outside Europe reached …

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Here is an entirely plausible scenario that could emerge after the next general election in the UK. Nigel Farage and Reform win a parliamentary majority. But upon entering office they soon find their plans for government are thwarted.

Rank-and-file civil servants go on strike. Senior civil servants publicly declare they are willing to help the new government while diluting and delaying its work behind the scenes. Countless civil servants leak embarrassing details and stories to their allies in legacy media. The machinery of government slows down, if not grinds to a halt.

Democratically-elected Reform MPs find they are unable to change anything. The people, exasperated with the paralysis in Westminster, turn away from not just Reform but democracy itself. Their one attempt to change the system, their one attempt to push Britain in a different direction, has failed.

Public support for Reform and public trust in the entire system collapse. What began as an energetic populist revolt is gradually but relentlessly worn down until it becomes lifeless, rudderless, incompetent, and remarkably unpopular.

This scenario, I suggest to you, is not just plausible – it is highly likely.

In fact, it is already underway.

Academic ‘experts’ on the civil service are already talking about the civil service engaging in ‘guerilla government’ against a democratically-elected government they do not like — such as by shirking, leaking, and whistleblowing.

Trade unions that represent civil servants are already openly debating going on strike if Reform does win the next general election.

The same state that did all it could to delay and dilute Brexit, in other words, will inevitably do all it can to try and undermine Reform’s populist insurgency, supported by its allies in legacy media and the university class.

Which is why something very important happened this week -- even though many people missed it. For the first time in British politics, an insurgent party that is on course to enter government acknowledged a crucial point: winning elections is no longer enough. Winning power through the ballot box is no longer enough.

In a striking new policy paper, titled ‘Fixing the Centre’, Reform UK makes it crystal clear that if the British people really want to take back control of their country and push it in a fundamentally different direction then they must not only win the next general election but confront what lies behind democratic politics.

Whether we call it The Blob, The Establishment, The Managerial State, The Deep State, The State Bureaucracy, or - as I like to call it - The Regime, what we’re talking about is a deeply entrenched, highly coordinated, and permanent class of state administrators and bureaucrats who continue to govern the country irrespective of who wins power at democratic elections.

Just look at the UK.

In the last ten years alone, the state civil service ballooned from roughly 384,000 people to some 550,000. The share of senior civil servants who wield enormous influence over policy has rocketed from 60 to 75 per cent.

As Reform MP Danny Kruger points out, the Cabinet Office, which sits at the heart of government, now employs a staggering 11,000 staff. That’s more than twice the number in 2010 and one third of the size of the Royal Navy.

Today, furthermore, there are somewhere between 300 and 800 public bodies, or ‘Arm’s Length Public Bodies’, which employ roughly 400,000 full-time staff, and which, in turn, are surrounded by an entire industry of non-governmental organisations, charities, foundations, research councils, and lobbyists, none of which are democratically elected but all of which shape the general direction of travel.

Last year, one think-tank estimated there are now nearly 500 ‘quasi-non-governmental organisations’ operating in the UK that received nearly £400 billion in direct funding from the government and billions more from non-governmental sources.

Today, nearly one-third of all government spending lies beyond day-to-day control of government ministers and democratically-elected MPs. Just think about that.

And of the many thousands of people who staff The Regime and its various satellites – the civil service, the universities, charities, foundations, legacy media, and more – an estimated 75 per cent, according to one survey, identify with the political left.

As Danny Kruger wrote in The Times this week: “The fact is that real power is held not by the elected government but by the permanent civil service, especially the cabinet secretary and the sprawling, incoherent bureaucracy of the Cabinet Office.”

And while he did not say it, most of the people who operate this permanent state are politically opposed to what a large majority of voters in this country want to see. So, make no mistake: a political battle is most definitely coming.

Which is why the new plans, outlined by Reform UK, to fundamentally change the underlying machinery of government, are important. They want to radically overhaul the way government works.

By curbing the power of the Cabinet Office. By scrapping the role of Cabinet Secretary. By dramatically reforming the civil service, including by reducing its size and rewriting the Civil Service Code.

By giving government ministers the right and power to sack civil servants who block their democratically-elected agenda, perform poorly, or threaten to go on strike. By weakening the grip of civil servants and distant, unaccountable, unelected bodies.

By creating a much more powerful Office of the Prime Minister, surrounding the prime minister with strong and loyal political appointments who can not only ensure promises made to voters are delivered but that The Regime does not takeover.

And, ultimately, by restoring the influence of the people over a Regime that has now become fully insulated from democratic pressures. Because the blunt reality is that, today, across the West …

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For years now, politicians have repeatedly warned that one of the main threats to Western nations comes from an angry, patriotic, ‘far-right’ working-class.

We saw this in the UK last weekend, when one politician after another - from Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer to London Mayor Sadiq Khan - lined up to condemn the ‘Unite the Kingdom’ rally in London against mass immigration.

Despite never displaying anywhere near the same level of concern about the pro-BLM, pro-Hamas, pro-Hezbollah, or even pro-Iran protests on the streets of London, one politician after another rushed to condemn the protest against mass immigration.

What made all this especially absurd was not just the blatant hypocrisy but how it came in the shadow of two important new studies which point to where the real threat facing the country lies - and it’s most definitely not the patriotic working-class.

First, in the aftermath of the recent elections to local councils in England, a new study by the Henry Jackson Society found that nearly 600 Muslim sectarian candidates have been elected to nearly 60 local councils and two Mayoralties across the country.

In other words, while one politician after another was berating the white working-class for being ‘racist’, ‘dangerous’, ‘divisive’ views, or flying the flag, more than one in ten of the successful candidates at the election were Muslim sectarians - activists who prioritise their tribal, clan, and religious loyalties above any loyalty to Britain.

Concentrated in heavily Muslim, urban, and younger areas - such as Birmingham, Blackburn, Bolton, Bradford, Coventry, London, and Oldham - the study shows how Muslim sectarianism is now rapidly spreading, as I’ve repeatedly warned it would.

And yet, the very same political class in Westminster that routinely proclaims ‘diversity is our strength’, ‘multiculturalism is working’, and ‘integration is happening’, has said absolutely nothing about it. The silence is deafening.

Even worse: rather than acknowledge and address these worrying trends, Keir Starmer and the Labour government appear unable to tolerate any discussion at all.

For instance, when one renegade politician, Tory MP Nick Timothy, recently dared to suggest in the House of Commons that a mass prayer event for Muslims in Central London was ‘an act of domination’, Keir Starmer called for him to be sacked.

Yes, to be sacked!

Sixteen years after David Cameron, Angela Merkel, and Nicolas Sarkozy all publicly declared that ‘multiculturalism has failed’, politicians in the UK have now retreated from reality to such an extent they cannot even allow other democratically-elected politicians to question the obvious symptoms of this unavoidable truth.

But what’s even more disturbing than the visible rise of sectarian politics at elections is what a second major study has revealed in recent days: the deeply worrying attitudes and beliefs that are now widespread in many of these Muslim communities.

Because, yet again, while politicians in Westminster and commentators in London obsess about the ‘far-right’ and the white working-class, something far more chilling and sinister is taking root …

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It’s official: the Labour Party has finally abandoned any pretence of respecting, recognising, and representing its own heartlands.

The party is now throwing millions of patriotic people who backed Brexit, want to slash immigration, fix our borders, and slow demographic change under the bus.

That’s the only conclusion one can draw after watching the direction of the race to replace Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and prime minister of the country.

Because over the weekend, one of the leading contenders to replace Starmer — former Health Secretary Wes Streeting — committed Labour to doing what it’s just spent six years trying to convince people it would never do: rejoin the European Union.

This policy was never in Labour’s manifesto. In fact, at the most recent general election Labour promised the very opposite. ‘With Labour’, the party proclaimed, ‘Britain will stay outside of the EU ... There will be no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement.’

But now Wes Streeting, who could become prime minister, has decided in one fell swoop to not only ignore his party’s democratic contract with the people but blow apart the idea that the Labour Party actually respects the people.

And nor is Streeting the only leadership contender to turn his back on the pro-Brexit Labour heartlands. Andy Burnham — another likely successor to replace Starmer — is also known to support rejoining the EU. In other words, the two leading contenders to replace Keir Starmer are fully committed to tearing up the country’s current constitutional settlement despite having absolutely no democratic mandate to do so, and doing the very opposite to what Labour’s own heartlands voted for.

And it’s not only on the question of Europe where this complete disregard for the people can be seen; it’s also visible on immigration, borders, and the deeper question of democratic legitimacy.

On immigration, Labour again appears incapable of listening to ordinary voters without sneering at them. Angela Rayner, another leadership hopeful, openly berates those in her party who call for immigration controls as ‘un-British’, while praising countries like Spain which just gave an amnesty to 500,000 illegal migrants.

Much like the man he hopes to replace, Wes Streeting, too, clearly views anybody who favours lowering immigration or leaving the European Convention on Human Rights so we can control our borders as backward, intolerant, or morally suspect.

Astonishingly, Streeting just responded to Labour’s enormous losses to Nigel Farage and Reform across its traditional heartlands at the local elections by casually deriding Reform and its supporters as ‘racist’, ‘Islamophobic’, ‘an existential threat’, and ‘English nationalists’, despite the fact Reform just finished second in Wales, ahead of Labour, and joint second in Scotland, with the same number of seats as Labour.

Bizarrely, like Starmer before him, Streeting also attacked people across non-London England who have been flying the national flag from lampposts as flying ‘a symbol of division, a message that those flags belong to people who look like me’.

Is Wes Streeting really this tin-eared? Does he really think we are still living in the 1970s? Is he not aware, for example, that many politicians with diverse backgrounds now represent Reform? That one in three black and minority ethnic Brits also voted for Brexit? That close to the same share of minority Brits feel, like their white counterparts, they are becoming ‘a stranger in Britain because of immigration?’ Or that the Unite the Kingdom protest over the weekend was clearly attended by many Brits from minority backgrounds?

Much like Starmer’s bizarre reaction to the Unite the Kingdom rally, which saw the prime minister rush to clampdown on the working-classes of this country in a way he did not do with the pro-Hamas, pro-Iran, anti-Semite, and pro-BLM demonstrations, Streeting and many other Labour MPs clearly view the people in their own heartlands as an assortment of morally inferior white nationalists, racists, and thugs.

What all this reflects is how left progressives, from those on the Labour benches and Labour HQ to those working at the BBC or in the universities, have radicalised to such an extent they are no longer in touch with the country that surrounds them. Even worse: they no longer appear to have any desire to get in touch with it.

It’s the same kind of sneering, moralising politics that drove millions of people in the Labour heartlands to abandon Labour in the first place. And Labour has learned absolutely nothing from it.

It is Gordon Brown criticising Gillian Duffy all over again. It is Emily Thornberry mocking the blue-collar worker who dared to drape a national flag over his house. It is Times columnist Matthew Parris, in 2014, urging Labour and the Tories to ‘give up’ on the decent people of Clacton because they have ‘nowhere to go’ (shortly before they helped power Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, then Brexit, then the Brexit Party, and then, again, Farage and Reform).

And now, in only a few weeks, this tension will collide head-on with political reality at a forthcoming parliamentary by-election in the seat of Makerfield, in outer Manchester, which Andy Burnham hopes to use as a springboard into parliament and then, ultimately, Number 10 Downing Street.

This seat is filled to the brim with many of the same people Labour has been insulting for years by ignoring what they think and feel. Fiercely pro-Brexit. Opposed to mass immigration. Patriotic. Culturally conservative. And where at the recent local elections each of the local council wards except one elected Reform councillors.

One person who perhaps understands the sheer scale of this gulf between the Labour Party and these voters is the local Labour MP, Lisa Nandy, who over the weekend warned Wes Streeting and her colleagues not to ‘reopen the Brexit wars’.

Why? Because she knows, I suspect, that this will only end in complete disaster for the Labour Party. Because we’ve seen this movie before.

Back in 2019, much like today, many within the Labour Party and its surrounding circle of supportive academics, pollsters, and journalists convinced themselves into believing that the sure path to victory was by seeking to overturn Brexit through a second referendum. Encouraged by radicalising progressives within their own ranks, Labour decided the people had simply got Brexit wrong and needed to vote again.

The result? What I warned it would be at the time: the worst defeat for the Labour Party since 1935. A complete and total disaster for the party that reflected how utterly out-of-touch it had become from its heartlands. Appalled by the prospect of the looming Brexit betrayal, and united by their righteous anger with a political class that refused to take them seriously, millions of voters in Middle England swung instead behind Boris Johnson’s simple but powerful promise to ‘Get Brexit Done’.

Today, too many in Labour appear determined to repeat the same mistake. Only this time, the slogan of Labour’s opponents, Nigel Farage and Reform, will not be ‘Get Brexit Done’. It will be: ‘Get Immigration Control Done’. ‘Get Fixing the Border Done’. ‘Get Respecting the People Done’. And once again, Labour’s radicalising progressives, who appear terrified of leaving the woke citadels, will be outflanked by the millions of people whose priorities, values, and concerns they have no brazenly ignored.

Labour, put simply, has finally given up on its own heartlands. Which is why, no matter who replaces Keir Starmer, the party is on course for yet another heavy defeat. Turning its back on its heartlands, Labour will now be reduced, by its own fanatical progressive activists, to competing against the Greens and woke liberals in urban cities and university towns where, similar to the aftermath of 2019, it will discover there are nowhere near enough seats to remain as a serious, viable, national party.

And when it finally gets off the floor to look over its shoulder at its heartlands, from the Red Wall to Wales, it will find they are now held by Nigel Farage and Reform, the vessel millions of exasperated, patriotic Brits are using to exact their revenge on a Labour Party that treats them so badly and which, as they are again being reminded through this Labour leadership contest, views them with such visceral contempt.

I look forward to joining our paid subscribers for a live discussion about the latest events in politics on the Substack App every Friday at 2pm UK time.

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Britain has just witnessed a truly historic set of elections. Reform UK finished in first place in England, second place in Wales, and joint second in Scotland. They captured 14 local councils, more than 1,400 local council seats, and won 3.8 million votes.

Along the way, Nigel Farage and his party inflicted enormous losses on Keir Starmer and the Labour Party in areas of the country that have been held by Labour for more than half a century, if not longer.

From Barnsley to Wigan, south Wales to Gateshead, Reform UK stormed into the Labour heartlands and emerged as the new working-class party in British politics.

At the same time, the combined share of the vote for the Labour Party and the Tories, the two main parties in Britain for more than a century, collapsed, with the left populist Greens also making significant gains.

What is now crystal clear is that the country’s once stable, once predictable, two-party system is now rapidly fragmenting and imploding into something else entirely. The unwritten laws of British politics, in short, are being torn apart.

Which is why Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now fighting for his political life, launching a ‘reset’ of his premiership and attempting to fend off increasingly assertive leadership challengers - most of whom want to steer the governing Labour Party much further to the economic left.

Unsurprisingly, the financial markets are also watching very closely, with the cost of servicing Britain’s debt spiralling in recent weeks and the spectre of a major debt and financial crisis now firmly on the horizon.

Which is why I am delighted to be joined today on the Stack by Liam Halligan, expert in all things connected to the economy and financial markets.

In our exclusive one-hour discussion, which was unfolding as Keir Starmer was giving his attempted ‘reset’ speech, we talk about everything: the election results, what caught our eye, the infighting within Labour, Reform’s strategy, the financial markets and what they’re watching, and why we do not think Starmer’s response is convincing.

Here’s a clip of me talking through just some of the election results:

And here’s a very short clip of Liam talking through the looming debt crisis which he expects to intensify (and in fairness to Liam he has consistently been ahead of the curve on predicting the rising cost of servicing our debt and the likely fallout).

Paid and Inner Circle subscribers can access the full, hour-long recording below.

And of course I’ll be talking about the ongoing fallout with you all during our weekly Live discussion every Friday. Now that we are back after the by-election and the book, and full-steam ahead, it’s a great time to upgrade and enjoy it all.

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Matt Goodwin’s newsletter goes to 94,000 subscribers. Inner Circle and Paid subscribers can access every post, the full archive, the comments, join Matt live every Friday, and know they’re supporting an independent writer speaking up for the silent majority. Join us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, X and Facebook. We will always tell you truth. Support us by upgrading or donating.

Today is a truly historic day in British politics. Elections have taken place across England, Wales, and Scotland and the results are rolling in.

I’m going to be joining our Inner Circle and Paid Subscribers for our exclusive weekly Live discussion later on today to fully dissect the results and offer a deeper analysis of what I think they tell us about the future of British politics. But for now, here are some initial thoughts.

Three points are key.

First, as I’ve long predicted in this newsletter, what we’re witnessing is the ongoing, next phase in the post-Brexit realignment of British politics.

Reform is enjoying major gains across the country - from taking Havering council to winning every available seat in Hartlepool, from cementing its stronghold in Eastern England, in North East Lincolnshire, to capturing Newcastle-under-Lyme council.

But Reform is polling especially strongly in areas of the country where people voted for Brexit and strongly oppose mass uncontrolled immigration, broken borders, soft-on-crime policies, and what they see, understandably, as the managed decline of their once great country.

Reform is currently averaging roughly 40 per cent in the most strongly pro-Brexit, and more working-class areas of the country, but only roughly 10-15 per cent in the most anti-Brexit areas.

What is this telling us?

It’s telling us that Nigel Farage and Reform have now leaned fully into what I wrote about last year: the ‘golden opportunity’ for this revolt.

They’ve now fully inherited the post-2016 realignment that Boris Johnson and the Tories briefly tapped into at the 2019 general election but then squandered by betraying millions of Brits through the ‘Boriswave’, the mass influx of immigrants, and losing control of Britain’s borders.

Some of the shocks are seismic.

This morning, for instance, Labour Minister Lisa Nandy woke up to find that Reform has captured 24 of 25 seats in her own northern area of Wigan.

While Labour MP Angela Rayner - who hopes to succeed Keir Starmer as leader - woke up to see Reform capture 18 of 19 seats up for election in Tameside - which also reflects the ongoing impact of our campaign at the Gorton & Denton by-election.

If Angela Rayner cannot even inspire people in her own area to vote Labour, some might ask, then how on earth can she ever inspire the rest of the country to do so.

If Labour MPs think that the answer to all this is to further relax immigration laws and ape the extreme liberalism of the Greens, or further anger Brexit voters by announcing “closer ties with the European Union”, then with all due respect they have no idea what is going on in their own backyard.

Either way, in these areas and more - including, I suspect, Wales later on today - it is the deeper realignment of our politics that’s allowing Reform to mobilise a broad, durable, and coherent electorate of blue-collar, culturally conservative, middle-aged and older patriotic men and women who work hard, play by the rules, and pay their taxes but are utterly sick and tired of being treated like second-class citizens in their own country.

They oppose mass immigration. They are fed up with broken borders. They want to leave the European Convention on Human Rights so that Britain can control its borders and laws. They want criminals punished. They want workers prioritised over welfare scroungers.

They want to slash foreign aid and spend it instead on frontline public services. And they want the decent majority of British people to be put first in their own country.

The second key point about these results, which many people will miss is that …

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Matt Goodwin’s newsletter goes to 94,000 subscribers. Inner Circle and Paid subscribers can access every post, the full archive, the comments, join Matt live every Friday, and know they’re supporting an independent writer speaking up for the silent majority. Join us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, X and Facebook. We will always tell you truth. Support us by upgrading or donating.

We are on the cusp of one of the most important sets of elections in Britain for a very long time.

Today, voting is underway to determine which parties will represent the people on local councils across England, and in parliaments in Scotland and Wales.

While our Inner Circle and Paid Subscribers can dissect the results with me - live - during our usual discussion on Friday afternoons, here’s a breakdown of what I’ll be watching closely this week - and why I think it matters.

1. First, look at the wider context. The economy is in the toilet and the country’s borrowing costs - as we’ve been predicting - just surged to a 28-year high. This really matters. A major crisis is brewing. It suggests that what I’ve been forecasting for a long time is on the way - growing pressure from financial markets colliding with the likely departure of Keir Starmer and Labour’s leftward turn, and then a spiralling financial and political crisis in Westminster. I think this is still the most plausible scenario.

2. The Uniparty - Labour and the Tories - is extremely unpopular. Both of the old parties are going into these elections in a very weak position. In the national polls, combined, they now hold only 37 per cent. At the most recent parliamentary by-election, in Gorton and Denton, they polled just 27 per cent. And at recent local by-elections, Starmer’s Labour has lost four in every five seats it’s been defending, while the Tories have lost about two-thirds (much of the ‘Badenoch Bounce’ talk is massively overplayed). What we are witnessing, in other words, is the steady, ongoing collapse of the traditional two-party system that’s dominated British politics for about a century. And that’s not all …

Which brings me onto the insurgent parties and specific things to watch over the next 72-hours.

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